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Economy·Business

Quanti tagli dei tassi della Fed nel 2026?

icon for Quanti tagli dei tassi della Fed nel 2026?
Economy·Business

Quanti tagli dei tassi della Fed nel 2026?

0 (0 bps) 71.0%

1 (25 pb) 16%

2 (50 punti base) 7%

3 (75 pb) 2.7%

Polymarket

$26,864,429 Vol.

0 (0 bps) 71.0%

1 (25 pb) 16%

2 (50 punti base) 7%

3 (75 pb) 2.7%

Polymarket

$26,864,429 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$4,184,871 Vol.

71%

1 (25 pb)

$1,244,245 Vol.

16%

2 (50 punti base)

$1,203,687 Vol.

7%

3 (75 pb)

$1,113,699 Vol.

3%

4 (100 bps)

$1,194,248 Vol.

2%

5 (125 punti base)

$1,415,109 Vol.

1%

6 (150 pb)

$2,483,676 Vol.

1%

7 (175 pb)

$1,322,070 Vol.

<1%

8 (200 pb)

$1,725,948 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 pb)

$2,449,310 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 punti base)

$3,115,552 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 pb)

$3,262,988 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ bps)

$2,149,025 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—up from 3.3% in March and driven by a 17.9% surge in energy costs amid the Iran conflict—has anchored trader sentiment toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% and no reductions implemented so far, market-implied odds favor holding rates through December at 71%, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and revised forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing any easing into 2027. Resilient labor market conditions and above-target inflation have tempered earlier dot-plot expectations of a single 25-basis-point move, while upcoming FOMC meetings and May inflation releases remain key data points that could shift probabilities if energy prices moderate.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,864,429
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—up from 3.3% in March and driven by a 17.9% surge in energy costs amid the Iran conflict—has anchored trader sentiment toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% and no reductions implemented so far, market-implied odds favor holding rates through December at 71%, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and revised forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing any easing into 2027. Resilient labor market conditions and above-target inflation have tempered earlier dot-plot expectations of a single 25-basis-point move, while upcoming FOMC meetings and May inflation releases remain key data points that could shift probabilities if energy prices moderate.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,864,429
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Domande frequenti

"Quanti tagli dei tassi della Fed nel 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 13 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "0 (0 bps)" a 71%, seguito da "1 (25 pb)" a 16%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 71¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 71% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Quanti tagli dei tassi della Fed nel 2026?" ha generato $26.9 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Sep 29, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Quanti tagli dei tassi della Fed nel 2026?", esplora i 13 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Quanti tagli dei tassi della Fed nel 2026?" è "0 (0 bps)" a 71%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 71% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "1 (25 pb)" a 16%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Quanti tagli dei tassi della Fed nel 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.