Trader consensus heavily favors 54 Senate yes votes for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to chair the Federal Reserve succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15, reflecting unified Republican support from the party's 53-member majority plus expected crossover from centrist Democrat Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA). This positioning stems from Warsh's recent 13-11 party-line Senate Banking Committee advancement in late April, a 51-45 floor confirmation to the Fed Board of Governors on May 12 with Fetterman's backing, and procedural cloture votes showing minimal GOP defections. Fetterman's public endorsement amid low controversy has solidified the narrow path to confirmation without filibuster. Scenarios challenging 54 include additional Democratic crossovers for 55, a Republican holdout dropping to 53, or further absences altering the tally before the final floor vote.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato54 97.5%
55 2.3%
53 1.1%
60+ 1.0%
$194,871 Vol.
$194,871 Vol.
31 dic 2026
≤49
<1%
50
<1%
51
<1%
52
<1%
53
1%
54
98%
55
2%
56
<1%
57
<1%
58
<1%
59
<1%
60+
1%
Nessun voto entro il 31 dicembre/Ritirato
<1%
54 97.5%
55 2.3%
53 1.1%
60+ 1.0%
$194,871 Vol.
$194,871 Vol.
31 dic 2026
≤49
$35,771 Vol.
<1%
50
$14,246 Vol.
<1%
51
$14,171 Vol.
<1%
52
$10,336 Vol.
<1%
53
$1,645 Vol.
1%
54
$4,421 Vol.
98%
55
$844 Vol.
2%
56
$16,049 Vol.
<1%
57
$13,784 Vol.
<1%
58
$14,619 Vol.
<1%
59
$14,777 Vol.
<1%
60+
$45,632 Vol.
1%
Nessun voto entro il 31 dicembre/Ritirato
$9,597 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors 54 Senate yes votes for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to chair the Federal Reserve succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15, reflecting unified Republican support from the party's 53-member majority plus expected crossover from centrist Democrat Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA). This positioning stems from Warsh's recent 13-11 party-line Senate Banking Committee advancement in late April, a 51-45 floor confirmation to the Fed Board of Governors on May 12 with Fetterman's backing, and procedural cloture votes showing minimal GOP defections. Fetterman's public endorsement amid low controversy has solidified the narrow path to confirmation without filibuster. Scenarios challenging 54 include additional Democratic crossovers for 55, a Republican holdout dropping to 53, or further absences altering the tally before the final floor vote.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$194,871Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors 54 Senate yes votes for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to chair the Federal Reserve succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15, reflecting unified Republican support from the party's 53-member majority plus expected crossover from centrist Democrat Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA). This positioning stems from Warsh's recent 13-11 party-line Senate Banking Committee advancement in late April, a 51-45 floor confirmation to the Fed Board of Governors on May 12 with Fetterman's backing, and procedural cloture votes showing minimal GOP defections. Fetterman's public endorsement amid low controversy has solidified the narrow path to confirmation without filibuster. Scenarios challenging 54 include additional Democratic crossovers for 55, a Republican holdout dropping to 53, or further absences altering the tally before the final floor vote.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$194,871Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors 54 Senate yes votes for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to chair the Federal Reserve succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15, reflecting unified Republican support from the party's 53-member majority plus expected crossover from centrist Democrat Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA). This positioning stems from Warsh's recent 13-11 party-line Senate Banking Committee advancement in late April, a 51-45 floor confirmation to the Fed Board of Governors on May 12 with Fetterman's backing, and procedural cloture votes showing minimal GOP defections. Fetterman's public endorsement amid low controversy has solidified the narrow path to confirmation without filibuster. Scenarios challenging 54 include additional Democratic crossovers for 55, a Republican holdout dropping to 53, or further absences altering the tally before the final floor vote.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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