President Trump's state visit to China, confirmed by Beijing's foreign ministry on May 11, runs from May 13 to 15, with his arrival in Beijing on May 13 and key summit meetings with Xi Jinping underway on May 14 amid discussions on trade, Taiwan, and Iran. This tightly scheduled itinerary, detailed in the White House public calendar, drives trader consensus at 99.4% for departure on May 15, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in high-stakes diplomacy where presidents adhere to published timelines absent major disruptions. While probabilities exceed 90%, potential shifts could arise from a late diplomatic breakthrough prompting extension, security incidents, weather delays at Beijing Capital International Airport, or health events, though none are currently indicated.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWhen will Trump leave China?
When will Trump leave China?
May 15 99.4%
May 16 <1%
May 17 <1%
May 18 <1%
$121,149 Vol.
$121,149 Vol.
20 mag 2026
May 14
<1%
May 15
99%
May 16
1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
<1%
Dopo il 18 maggio
<1%
May 15 99.4%
May 16 <1%
May 17 <1%
May 18 <1%
$121,149 Vol.
$121,149 Vol.
20 mag 2026
May 14
$33,542 Vol.
<1%
May 15
$29,311 Vol.
99%
May 16
$23,921 Vol.
1%
May 17
$8,104 Vol.
<1%
May 18
$2,524 Vol.
<1%
Dopo il 18 maggio
$5,755 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's state visit to China, confirmed by Beijing's foreign ministry on May 11, runs from May 13 to 15, with his arrival in Beijing on May 13 and key summit meetings with Xi Jinping underway on May 14 amid discussions on trade, Taiwan, and Iran. This tightly scheduled itinerary, detailed in the White House public calendar, drives trader consensus at 99.4% for departure on May 15, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in high-stakes diplomacy where presidents adhere to published timelines absent major disruptions. While probabilities exceed 90%, potential shifts could arise from a late diplomatic breakthrough prompting extension, security incidents, weather delays at Beijing Capital International Airport, or health events, though none are currently indicated.
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 11, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$121,149Data di fine
20 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 11, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's state visit to China, confirmed by Beijing's foreign ministry on May 11, runs from May 13 to 15, with his arrival in Beijing on May 13 and key summit meetings with Xi Jinping underway on May 14 amid discussions on trade, Taiwan, and Iran. This tightly scheduled itinerary, detailed in the White House public calendar, drives trader consensus at 99.4% for departure on May 15, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in high-stakes diplomacy where presidents adhere to published timelines absent major disruptions. While probabilities exceed 90%, potential shifts could arise from a late diplomatic breakthrough prompting extension, security incidents, weather delays at Beijing Capital International Airport, or health events, though none are currently indicated.
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$121,149Data di fine
20 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 11, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...President Trump's state visit to China, confirmed by Beijing's foreign ministry on May 11, runs from May 13 to 15, with his arrival in Beijing on May 13 and key summit meetings with Xi Jinping underway on May 14 amid discussions on trade, Taiwan, and Iran. This tightly scheduled itinerary, detailed in the White House public calendar, drives trader consensus at 99.4% for departure on May 15, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in high-stakes diplomacy where presidents adhere to published timelines absent major disruptions. While probabilities exceed 90%, potential shifts could arise from a late diplomatic breakthrough prompting extension, security incidents, weather delays at Beijing Capital International Airport, or health events, though none are currently indicated.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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