Recent FAA approvals for up to 25 annual Starship launches from Texas and environmental reviews supporting 44 from Florida have bolstered trader confidence in gradual cadence growth, yet the market-implied 58% odds for 5-6 launches reaching space in 2026 reflect the ongoing V3 test phase. SpaceX completed its 13th successful flight test in July 2026 with satellite deployment, following Flight 12 in May, while Flight 14 targets orbital payload insertion and a potential tower catch by late August. Persistent regulatory reviews, iterative vehicle refinements, and emphasis on reusability milestones continue to constrain rapid scaling, with trader consensus pricing in only modest additional flights through year-end amid typical aerospace timeline uncertainties.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
Quanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
5-6 56%
<5 32%
7-8 7.7%
9-10 3.5%
$492,292 Vol.
$492,292 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
32%
5-6
56%
7-8
8%
9-10
3%
11-12
2%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
2%
5-6 56%
<5 32%
7-8 7.7%
9-10 3.5%
$492,292 Vol.
$492,292 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
$98,746 Vol.
32%
5-6
$113,763 Vol.
56%
7-8
$158,438 Vol.
8%
9-10
$61,399 Vol.
3%
11-12
$8,304 Vol.
2%
13-14
$9,138 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$30,038 Vol.
<1%
>16
$12,465 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent FAA approvals for up to 25 annual Starship launches from Texas and environmental reviews supporting 44 from Florida have bolstered trader confidence in gradual cadence growth, yet the market-implied 58% odds for 5-6 launches reaching space in 2026 reflect the ongoing V3 test phase. SpaceX completed its 13th successful flight test in July 2026 with satellite deployment, following Flight 12 in May, while Flight 14 targets orbital payload insertion and a potential tower catch by late August. Persistent regulatory reviews, iterative vehicle refinements, and emphasis on reusability milestones continue to constrain rapid scaling, with trader consensus pricing in only modest additional flights through year-end amid typical aerospace timeline uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$492,292Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent FAA approvals for up to 25 annual Starship launches from Texas and environmental reviews supporting 44 from Florida have bolstered trader confidence in gradual cadence growth, yet the market-implied 58% odds for 5-6 launches reaching space in 2026 reflect the ongoing V3 test phase. SpaceX completed its 13th successful flight test in July 2026 with satellite deployment, following Flight 12 in May, while Flight 14 targets orbital payload insertion and a potential tower catch by late August. Persistent regulatory reviews, iterative vehicle refinements, and emphasis on reusability milestones continue to constrain rapid scaling, with trader consensus pricing in only modest additional flights through year-end amid typical aerospace timeline uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$492,292Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent FAA approvals for up to 25 annual Starship launches from Texas and environmental reviews supporting 44 from Florida have bolstered trader confidence in gradual cadence growth, yet the market-implied 58% odds for 5-6 launches reaching space in 2026 reflect the ongoing V3 test phase. SpaceX completed its 13th successful flight test in July 2026 with satellite deployment, following Flight 12 in May, while Flight 14 targets orbital payload insertion and a potential tower catch by late August. Persistent regulatory reviews, iterative vehicle refinements, and emphasis on reusability milestones continue to constrain rapid scaling, with trader consensus pricing in only modest additional flights through year-end amid typical aerospace timeline uncertainties.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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