Regulatory approvals for expanded Starship operations at Starbase and Kennedy Space Center, including environmental clearances for up to 25-44 annual launches, have boosted optimism for higher cadence in 2026, yet the market heavily favors fewer than five successful space-reaching flights at 49.5% implied probability. This reflects the program's deliberate testing pace, with Starship V3 debuting on the upcoming twelfth flight test and key milestones like long-duration orbital propulsion and propellant transfer demos still pending later this year. Historical flight test outcomes, ongoing FAA license refinements, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles continue to temper trader expectations for rapid scaling.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
Quanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
<5 50%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.1%
>16 4.1%
$450,036 Vol.
$450,036 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
52%
5-6
26%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
4%
<5 50%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.1%
>16 4.1%
$450,036 Vol.
$450,036 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
$90,622 Vol.
52%
5-6
$108,327 Vol.
26%
7-8
$152,207 Vol.
4%
9-10
$55,882 Vol.
2%
11-12
$3,765 Vol.
2%
13-14
$4,747 Vol.
1%
15-16
$25,181 Vol.
2%
>16
$9,304 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Regulatory approvals for expanded Starship operations at Starbase and Kennedy Space Center, including environmental clearances for up to 25-44 annual launches, have boosted optimism for higher cadence in 2026, yet the market heavily favors fewer than five successful space-reaching flights at 49.5% implied probability. This reflects the program's deliberate testing pace, with Starship V3 debuting on the upcoming twelfth flight test and key milestones like long-duration orbital propulsion and propellant transfer demos still pending later this year. Historical flight test outcomes, ongoing FAA license refinements, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles continue to temper trader expectations for rapid scaling.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$450,036Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Regulatory approvals for expanded Starship operations at Starbase and Kennedy Space Center, including environmental clearances for up to 25-44 annual launches, have boosted optimism for higher cadence in 2026, yet the market heavily favors fewer than five successful space-reaching flights at 49.5% implied probability. This reflects the program's deliberate testing pace, with Starship V3 debuting on the upcoming twelfth flight test and key milestones like long-duration orbital propulsion and propellant transfer demos still pending later this year. Historical flight test outcomes, ongoing FAA license refinements, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles continue to temper trader expectations for rapid scaling.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$450,036Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Regulatory approvals for expanded Starship operations at Starbase and Kennedy Space Center, including environmental clearances for up to 25-44 annual launches, have boosted optimism for higher cadence in 2026, yet the market heavily favors fewer than five successful space-reaching flights at 49.5% implied probability. This reflects the program's deliberate testing pace, with Starship V3 debuting on the upcoming twelfth flight test and key milestones like long-duration orbital propulsion and propellant transfer demos still pending later this year. Historical flight test outcomes, ongoing FAA license refinements, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles continue to temper trader expectations for rapid scaling.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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