Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program have produced closely balanced trader sentiment around a 52.5% implied probability for an agreement ending uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent indirect talks mediated by Oman in Geneva and Islamabad reveal persistent gaps, with the United States seeking a long-term moratorium or zero enrichment alongside stockpile removal, while Iran asserts its right to enrichment and proposes shorter suspensions or monitored downblending of its highly enriched material. A fragile ceasefire following prior military exchanges adds urgency to the diplomacy. Further verifiable commitments on nuclear facilities or sanctions relief could improve odds of resolution, whereas renewed escalation or hardened positions would likely reinforce uncertainty in the current contested range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$195,014 Vol.
$195,014 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$195,014 Vol.
$195,014 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program have produced closely balanced trader sentiment around a 52.5% implied probability for an agreement ending uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent indirect talks mediated by Oman in Geneva and Islamabad reveal persistent gaps, with the United States seeking a long-term moratorium or zero enrichment alongside stockpile removal, while Iran asserts its right to enrichment and proposes shorter suspensions or monitored downblending of its highly enriched material. A fragile ceasefire following prior military exchanges adds urgency to the diplomacy. Further verifiable commitments on nuclear facilities or sanctions relief could improve odds of resolution, whereas renewed escalation or hardened positions would likely reinforce uncertainty in the current contested range.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$195,014Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program have produced closely balanced trader sentiment around a 52.5% implied probability for an agreement ending uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent indirect talks mediated by Oman in Geneva and Islamabad reveal persistent gaps, with the United States seeking a long-term moratorium or zero enrichment alongside stockpile removal, while Iran asserts its right to enrichment and proposes shorter suspensions or monitored downblending of its highly enriched material. A fragile ceasefire following prior military exchanges adds urgency to the diplomacy. Further verifiable commitments on nuclear facilities or sanctions relief could improve odds of resolution, whereas renewed escalation or hardened positions would likely reinforce uncertainty in the current contested range.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$195,014Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program have produced closely balanced trader sentiment around a 52.5% implied probability for an agreement ending uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent indirect talks mediated by Oman in Geneva and Islamabad reveal persistent gaps, with the United States seeking a long-term moratorium or zero enrichment alongside stockpile removal, while Iran asserts its right to enrichment and proposes shorter suspensions or monitored downblending of its highly enriched material. A fragile ceasefire following prior military exchanges adds urgency to the diplomacy. Further verifiable commitments on nuclear facilities or sanctions relief could improve odds of resolution, whereas renewed escalation or hardened positions would likely reinforce uncertainty in the current contested range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti