Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over a framework agreement to end recent conflict have produced a memorandum of understanding that includes provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade. However, Iranian officials continue to signal interest in charging transit fees for services, while US statements emphasize toll-free passage. Shipping remains limited by safety concerns, including residual mines and insurance issues, even as some tankers have begun limited movements. With formal signing scheduled around June 19 and 60-day ceasefire extensions under discussion, unresolved disputes over fees and operational guarantees make a firm Iranian commitment to fully unrestricted transit by June 30 unlikely in traders' assessments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Iran accetta di spedire senza restrizioni attraverso Hormuz entro il 30 giugno?
L'Iran accetta di spedire senza restrizioni attraverso Hormuz entro il 30 giugno?
Sì
$1,435,421 Vol.
$1,435,421 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$1,435,421 Vol.
$1,435,421 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over a framework agreement to end recent conflict have produced a memorandum of understanding that includes provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade. However, Iranian officials continue to signal interest in charging transit fees for services, while US statements emphasize toll-free passage. Shipping remains limited by safety concerns, including residual mines and insurance issues, even as some tankers have begun limited movements. With formal signing scheduled around June 19 and 60-day ceasefire extensions under discussion, unresolved disputes over fees and operational guarantees make a firm Iranian commitment to fully unrestricted transit by June 30 unlikely in traders' assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$1,435,421Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over a framework agreement to end recent conflict have produced a memorandum of understanding that includes provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade. However, Iranian officials continue to signal interest in charging transit fees for services, while US statements emphasize toll-free passage. Shipping remains limited by safety concerns, including residual mines and insurance issues, even as some tankers have begun limited movements. With formal signing scheduled around June 19 and 60-day ceasefire extensions under discussion, unresolved disputes over fees and operational guarantees make a firm Iranian commitment to fully unrestricted transit by June 30 unlikely in traders' assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,435,421Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over a framework agreement to end recent conflict have produced a memorandum of understanding that includes provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade. However, Iranian officials continue to signal interest in charging transit fees for services, while US statements emphasize toll-free passage. Shipping remains limited by safety concerns, including residual mines and insurance issues, even as some tankers have begun limited movements. With formal signing scheduled around June 19 and 60-day ceasefire extensions under discussion, unresolved disputes over fees and operational guarantees make a firm Iranian commitment to fully unrestricted transit by June 30 unlikely in traders' assessments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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