Recent forecast model consensus from sources like the Met Office, ECMWF ensembles, and regional guidance points to a minimum temperature near 12–14°C in Amsterdam overnight into August 22, consistent with market-implied odds favoring 13°C or 14°C. Northwest winds off the North Sea, combined with building high pressure and partly cloudy skies, are limiting radiational cooling while advecting cooler maritime air; dew points near 11–12°C further moderate overnight lows. Stronger winds or lingering cloud cover would favor the higher end of this range by reducing surface heat loss, whereas clearer conditions and lighter flow could allow brief dips toward 12°C. Historical climatology shows typical August 22 minima near 13°C, with current guidance reflecting a modest cooling trend after warmer-than-average early August conditions. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will provide the final resolution data.