Recent rainfall and associated cloud cover across Chongqing through August 29–30 have suppressed daytime heating while maintaining elevated humidity and soil moisture. Clearing skies and building high pressure on August 31 are expected to allow stronger nocturnal radiative cooling, with official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and numerical models (including GFS and ECMWF runs) projecting overnight lows clustered between 21–25 °C. Light winds and dew-point depressions favor the lower end of that range under clear conditions, yet residual moisture and urban heat-island effects introduce variability that keeps 22–24 °C outcomes closely matched in trader pricing. Historical late-August minima in the region average near 24 °C, providing context for why markets assign limited probability to extremes above 25 °C or below 20 °C absent a sharper cold-air intrusion. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will be the key data releases likely to shift implied probabilities.