Recent heavy rainfall across Chongqing from August 28–29, driven by strong convective systems with localized downpours up to 100+ mm, has substantially cooled surface temperatures and increased soil moisture, suppressing rapid reheating. Official forecasts from the Chongqing Meteorological Bureau now indicate mostly cloudy to clear skies on August 31 with highs of 33–34°C in central districts and up to 38°C in some outlying areas, consistent with multiple global models showing post-frontal recovery under lingering subtropical high influence but moderated by residual humidity. This creates genuine uncertainty in peak values, as small differences in cloud cover, wind patterns, or boundary-layer mixing could shift outcomes across the 29–39°C range, explaining the near-even market split between extreme bins while intermediate probabilities remain balanced. Updated NWP runs and official briefings on August 30 will provide key resolution signals.