Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate a likely daily high of 32–33°C for Shanghai on August 29 under southeast flow, partly cloudy skies, and scattered light showers that limit surface heating. Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate typically yields August maxima near 31°C; recent days have hovered around 31–33°C with elevated humidity (80–90%) and dew points near 26°C, supporting modest afternoon peaks without extreme heat advection. The market’s heavy weighting toward 32°C (60.5%) versus 31°C (22.5%) or 33°C (14.5%) reflects consensus on this range, tempered by typical forecast spread in timing of any rain and boundary-layer mixing. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine the exact maximum and associated resolution probabilities.