Recent short-range model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to overnight lows near 26°C on July 14 amid persistent monsoon moisture, high humidity near 80-90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This keeps the 25–26°C bins tightly matched at over 69% combined implied probability, with 27°C a close third, as typical July climatology (average minimum ~26–27°C) is tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers that suppress temperature drops below 25°C. The HKO’s July–September seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides the broader anchor, while urban heat-island effects and any last-minute tropical disturbance tracks remain the key variables that could shift resolution toward warmer or cooler outcomes as the 48-hour forecast window narrows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 14 luglio?
La temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 14 luglio?
27°C 38%
26°C 29%
25°C 21%
24°C 9.2%
NUOVO
NUOVO
14 lug 2026
21°C o inferiore
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
9%
25°C
27%
26°C
35%
27°C
38%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C o superiore
<1%
27°C 38%
26°C 29%
25°C 21%
24°C 9.2%
NUOVO
NUOVO
14 lug 2026
21°C o inferiore
$387 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$170 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$680 Vol.
1%
24°C
$599 Vol.
9%
25°C
$956 Vol.
27%
26°C
$721 Vol.
35%
27°C
$1,666 Vol.
38%
28°C
$1,396 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,727 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$699 Vol.
<1%
31°C o superiore
$327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to overnight lows near 26°C on July 14 amid persistent monsoon moisture, high humidity near 80-90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This keeps the 25–26°C bins tightly matched at over 69% combined implied probability, with 27°C a close third, as typical July climatology (average minimum ~26–27°C) is tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers that suppress temperature drops below 25°C. The HKO’s July–September seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides the broader anchor, while urban heat-island effects and any last-minute tropical disturbance tracks remain the key variables that could shift resolution toward warmer or cooler outcomes as the 48-hour forecast window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jul 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$9,316Data di fine
14 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to overnight lows near 26°C on July 14 amid persistent monsoon moisture, high humidity near 80-90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This keeps the 25–26°C bins tightly matched at over 69% combined implied probability, with 27°C a close third, as typical July climatology (average minimum ~26–27°C) is tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers that suppress temperature drops below 25°C. The HKO’s July–September seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides the broader anchor, while urban heat-island effects and any last-minute tropical disturbance tracks remain the key variables that could shift resolution toward warmer or cooler outcomes as the 48-hour forecast window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,316Data di fine
14 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to overnight lows near 26°C on July 14 amid persistent monsoon moisture, high humidity near 80-90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This keeps the 25–26°C bins tightly matched at over 69% combined implied probability, with 27°C a close third, as typical July climatology (average minimum ~26–27°C) is tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers that suppress temperature drops below 25°C. The HKO’s July–September seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides the broader anchor, while urban heat-island effects and any last-minute tropical disturbance tracks remain the key variables that could shift resolution toward warmer or cooler outcomes as the 48-hour forecast window narrows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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