**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 29, 2026, centers on forecast uncertainty amid the rainy season, producing closely matched implied probabilities (39% each) for 11°C–14°C minima.** Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance forecasts a minimum of 13–15°C under mostly cloudy skies, with morning fog or mist in higher areas and a 70%+ chance of afternoon thunderstorms bringing 25–50 mm of rain, lightning, and possible hail. Multiple models show spread: some (e.g., certain international runs) project overnight lows near 13°C due to limited radiative cooling under persistent cloud cover and high humidity, while others allow slightly cooler readings around 11–12°C if breaks in cloud occur. Historical August 29 averages hover near 14°C (57°F), providing a baseline traders weigh against current convective activity. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of overnight cloud decks, dew-point suppression from rain-cooled air, and local elevation effects (Mexico City sits at ~2,240 m). With resolution hinging on the precise overnight low, traders appear to price in genuine model divergence rather than a single consensus outcome, keeping probabilities balanced across the central range while assigning negligible odds to extremes below 10°C or above 15°C. Updated model runs and official briefings through the day will likely drive any shifts.