**Current forecasts from sources like WeatherBug indicate a low around 72–73°F for New York City on September 1, 2026, driven by persistent humid southwesterly flow and a high chance (around 70%) of showers and thunderstorms.** This setup favors overnight temperatures remaining elevated in the low 70s rather than dropping toward seasonal norms. Model consensus supports above-average warmth for early September, with the average historical low near 66°F. The market's elevated implied probabilities for the 72–73°F range (26.5%) and adjacent bins (70–71°F and 74–75°F at 25–26.5%) align with this guidance, while the notable share on 84°F or higher (36.5%) reflects residual uncertainty in exact minimum readings amid variable storm timing and cloud cover. Lower bins below 70°F receive less weighting as no strong cold advection is expected in the next 48 hours. Recent model runs and short-range guidance have shown limited shifts, keeping trader focus on the warm, moist pattern and upcoming forecast updates from the National Weather Service.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di New York il 1° settembre?
La temperatura più bassa di New York il 1° settembre?
66-67°F 44%
68-69°F 44%
78-79°F 44%
76-77°F 35%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
65°F o inferiore
18%
66-67°F
44%
68-69°F
44%
70-71°F
21%
72-73°F
32%
74-75°F
27%
76-77°F
35%
78-79°F
44%
80-81°F
34%
82-83°F
34%
84°F o superiore
7%
66-67°F 44%
68-69°F 44%
78-79°F 44%
76-77°F 35%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
65°F o inferiore
$0 Vol.
18%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
44%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
44%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
21%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
32%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
27%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
35%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
44%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
34%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
34%
84°F o superiore
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from sources like WeatherBug indicate a low around 72–73°F for New York City on September 1, 2026, driven by persistent humid southwesterly flow and a high chance (around 70%) of showers and thunderstorms.** This setup favors overnight temperatures remaining elevated in the low 70s rather than dropping toward seasonal norms.
Model consensus supports above-average warmth for early September, with the average historical low near 66°F. The market's elevated implied probabilities for the 72–73°F range (26.5%) and adjacent bins (70–71°F and 74–75°F at 25–26.5%) align with this guidance, while the notable share on 84°F or higher (36.5%) reflects residual uncertainty in exact minimum readings amid variable storm timing and cloud cover. Lower bins below 70°F receive less weighting as no strong cold advection is expected in the next 48 hours.
Recent model runs and short-range guidance have shown limited shifts, keeping trader focus on the warm, moist pattern and upcoming forecast updates from the National Weather Service.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 30, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 30, 2026, 3:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from sources like WeatherBug indicate a low around 72–73°F for New York City on September 1, 2026, driven by persistent humid southwesterly flow and a high chance (around 70%) of showers and thunderstorms.** This setup favors overnight temperatures remaining elevated in the low 70s rather than dropping toward seasonal norms.
Model consensus supports above-average warmth for early September, with the average historical low near 66°F. The market's elevated implied probabilities for the 72–73°F range (26.5%) and adjacent bins (70–71°F and 74–75°F at 25–26.5%) align with this guidance, while the notable share on 84°F or higher (36.5%) reflects residual uncertainty in exact minimum readings amid variable storm timing and cloud cover. Lower bins below 70°F receive less weighting as no strong cold advection is expected in the next 48 hours.
Recent model runs and short-range guidance have shown limited shifts, keeping trader focus on the warm, moist pattern and upcoming forecast updates from the National Weather Service.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 30, 2026, 3:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from sources like WeatherBug indicate a low around 72–73°F for New York City on September 1, 2026, driven by persistent humid southwesterly flow and a high chance (around 70%) of showers and thunderstorms.** This setup favors overnight temperatures remaining elevated in the low 70s rather than dropping toward seasonal norms. Model consensus supports above-average warmth for early September, with the average historical low near 66°F. The market's elevated implied probabilities for the 72–73°F range (26.5%) and adjacent bins (70–71°F and 74–75°F at 25–26.5%) align with this guidance, while the notable share on 84°F or higher (36.5%) reflects residual uncertainty in exact minimum readings amid variable storm timing and cloud cover. Lower bins below 70°F receive less weighting as no strong cold advection is expected in the next 48 hours. Recent model runs and short-range guidance have shown limited shifts, keeping trader focus on the warm, moist pattern and upcoming forecast updates from the National Weather Service.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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