Recent forecast model runs for Wellington, New Zealand, highlight a southerly airstream and potential clear-sky radiative cooling as the main drivers pushing market-implied odds toward a minimum near 2–7 °C on 21 August. Official guidance from MetService and NIWA indicates overnight temperatures could dip to 4–6 °C under clearer conditions, while increased cloud or a milder northerly flow would keep readings closer to 7–8 °C. Historical August minima average 6–8 °C, but current ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in the timing of any frontal passage and wind shift, which traders weigh when assigning roughly equal probabilities across the 3–8 °C outcomes. Updated model data and MetService briefings tomorrow morning will likely refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Wellington il 21 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa a Wellington il 21 agosto?
6°C 38%
7°C 35%
3°C 34%
4°C 34%
NUOVO
NUOVO
21 ago 2026
2°C or below
29%
3°C
34%
4°C
34%
5°C
34%
6°C
38%
7°C
35%
8°C
34%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C or higher
<1%
6°C 38%
7°C 35%
3°C 34%
4°C 34%
NUOVO
NUOVO
21 ago 2026
2°C or below
$65 Vol.
29%
3°C
$55 Vol.
34%
4°C
$55 Vol.
34%
5°C
$55 Vol.
34%
6°C
$0 Vol.
38%
7°C
$0 Vol.
35%
8°C
$0 Vol.
34%
9°C
$241 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
12°C or higher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for Wellington, New Zealand, highlight a southerly airstream and potential clear-sky radiative cooling as the main drivers pushing market-implied odds toward a minimum near 2–7 °C on 21 August. Official guidance from MetService and NIWA indicates overnight temperatures could dip to 4–6 °C under clearer conditions, while increased cloud or a milder northerly flow would keep readings closer to 7–8 °C. Historical August minima average 6–8 °C, but current ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in the timing of any frontal passage and wind shift, which traders weigh when assigning roughly equal probabilities across the 3–8 °C outcomes. Updated model data and MetService briefings tomorrow morning will likely refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Volume
$651Data di fine
21 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for Wellington, New Zealand, highlight a southerly airstream and potential clear-sky radiative cooling as the main drivers pushing market-implied odds toward a minimum near 2–7 °C on 21 August. Official guidance from MetService and NIWA indicates overnight temperatures could dip to 4–6 °C under clearer conditions, while increased cloud or a milder northerly flow would keep readings closer to 7–8 °C. Historical August minima average 6–8 °C, but current ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in the timing of any frontal passage and wind shift, which traders weigh when assigning roughly equal probabilities across the 3–8 °C outcomes. Updated model data and MetService briefings tomorrow morning will likely refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$651Data di fine
21 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs for Wellington, New Zealand, highlight a southerly airstream and potential clear-sky radiative cooling as the main drivers pushing market-implied odds toward a minimum near 2–7 °C on 21 August. Official guidance from MetService and NIWA indicates overnight temperatures could dip to 4–6 °C under clearer conditions, while increased cloud or a milder northerly flow would keep readings closer to 7–8 °C. Historical August minima average 6–8 °C, but current ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in the timing of any frontal passage and wind shift, which traders weigh when assigning roughly equal probabilities across the 3–8 °C outcomes. Updated model data and MetService briefings tomorrow morning will likely refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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