**Trader sentiment for Wellington's minimum temperature on August 22 reflects tight consensus around 9–11 °C, driven by the latest short-range forecast guidance showing mild overnight conditions under variable northwesterly flow.** Current model runs indicate a minimum likely between 8–12 °C, with the leading market outcomes (11 °C at 52 %, 9 °C at 46 %, 10 °C at 41 %) capturing the narrow ensemble spread typical 24–48 hours ahead. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of northwesterly winds, which promote mixing and limit radiative cooling, versus any increase in cloud cover or a brief southerly change that could allow temperatures to dip lower. Wellington's coastal location and exposure to the Cook Strait amplify sensitivity to wind speed and direction: stronger gusts (often 30–50 km/h) raise the minimum by several degrees through turbulent mixing, while lighter winds or clearer skies overnight enhance cooling toward the lower end of the range. Recent observations show mild conditions persisting with highs near 13–15 °C and no strong cold front imminent, keeping the probability of 8 °C or below very low (0.5 %). Upcoming MetService and international model updates through the evening of August 21 will likely narrow the spread as the precise wind and cloud evolution becomes clearer.