**Recent forecast guidance from MetService and model consensus points to a minimum temperature in Wellington around 8–11°C on 23 August 2026, aligning with the market's leading probabilities.** Wellington's coastal location and prevailing northwesterly flow limit radiative cooling compared with inland South Island sites, keeping overnight lows near or slightly below the August average of roughly 8°C. A cold front clearing early on the 23rd, followed by high pressure and lighter winds, supports modest cooling but not the deeper frosts seen earlier in the month from polar air outbreaks. Ensemble spreads and historical analogs for similar post-frontal setups in late winter place the highest likelihood near 10–11°C, with a non-negligible tail toward 6–8°C if skies clear fully overnight. Updated model runs and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Wellington il 23 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa a Wellington il 23 agosto?
10°C 22%
12°C 20%
13°C 14%
9°C 13%
NUOVO
NUOVO
23 ago 2026
5°C o inferiore
1%
6°C
8%
7°C
10%
8°C
10%
9°C
13%
10°C
22%
11°C
39%
12°C
20%
13°C
14%
14°C
1%
15°C o superiore
1%
10°C 22%
12°C 20%
13°C 14%
9°C 13%
NUOVO
NUOVO
23 ago 2026
5°C o inferiore
$32 Vol.
1%
6°C
$20 Vol.
8%
7°C
$20 Vol.
10%
8°C
$0 Vol.
10%
9°C
$0 Vol.
13%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$39 Vol.
39%
12°C
$55 Vol.
20%
13°C
$27 Vol.
14%
14°C
$5 Vol.
1%
15°C o superiore
$27 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast guidance from MetService and model consensus points to a minimum temperature in Wellington around 8–11°C on 23 August 2026, aligning with the market's leading probabilities.**
Wellington's coastal location and prevailing northwesterly flow limit radiative cooling compared with inland South Island sites, keeping overnight lows near or slightly below the August average of roughly 8°C. A cold front clearing early on the 23rd, followed by high pressure and lighter winds, supports modest cooling but not the deeper frosts seen earlier in the month from polar air outbreaks. Ensemble spreads and historical analogs for similar post-frontal setups in late winter place the highest likelihood near 10–11°C, with a non-negligible tail toward 6–8°C if skies clear fully overnight. Updated model runs and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$224Data di fine
23 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast guidance from MetService and model consensus points to a minimum temperature in Wellington around 8–11°C on 23 August 2026, aligning with the market's leading probabilities.**
Wellington's coastal location and prevailing northwesterly flow limit radiative cooling compared with inland South Island sites, keeping overnight lows near or slightly below the August average of roughly 8°C. A cold front clearing early on the 23rd, followed by high pressure and lighter winds, supports modest cooling but not the deeper frosts seen earlier in the month from polar air outbreaks. Ensemble spreads and historical analogs for similar post-frontal setups in late winter place the highest likelihood near 10–11°C, with a non-negligible tail toward 6–8°C if skies clear fully overnight. Updated model runs and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$224Data di fine
23 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecast guidance from MetService and model consensus points to a minimum temperature in Wellington around 8–11°C on 23 August 2026, aligning with the market's leading probabilities.** Wellington's coastal location and prevailing northwesterly flow limit radiative cooling compared with inland South Island sites, keeping overnight lows near or slightly below the August average of roughly 8°C. A cold front clearing early on the 23rd, followed by high pressure and lighter winds, supports modest cooling but not the deeper frosts seen earlier in the month from polar air outbreaks. Ensemble spreads and historical analogs for similar post-frontal setups in late winter place the highest likelihood near 10–11°C, with a non-negligible tail toward 6–8°C if skies clear fully overnight. Updated model runs and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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