Incumbent Republican Lisa McClain’s unopposed primary victory on August 4 and the district’s R+16 Partisan Voter Index underpin the 92.5% Republican probability reflected in trader consensus. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with McClain’s 2024 margin exceeding 30 points and the district’s rural-suburban composition across Huron, St. Clair, Lapeer, and portions of Macomb and Oakland counties. Democrat Ray Pooley’s similarly uncontested nomination and minimal reported fundraising leave little immediate competitive pressure ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as unexpected national economic shifts, turnout surges in Democratic-leaning pockets, or candidate-specific events could narrow the margin, though structural factors continue to favor the Republican nominee.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMI-09 House Election Winner
MI-09 House Election Winner
$24,277 Vol.
$24,277 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
6%
$24,277 Vol.
$24,277 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
$17,710 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$6,567 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lisa McClain’s unopposed primary victory on August 4 and the district’s R+16 Partisan Voter Index underpin the 92.5% Republican probability reflected in trader consensus. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with McClain’s 2024 margin exceeding 30 points and the district’s rural-suburban composition across Huron, St. Clair, Lapeer, and portions of Macomb and Oakland counties. Democrat Ray Pooley’s similarly uncontested nomination and minimal reported fundraising leave little immediate competitive pressure ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as unexpected national economic shifts, turnout surges in Democratic-leaning pockets, or candidate-specific events could narrow the margin, though structural factors continue to favor the Republican nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$24,277Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lisa McClain’s unopposed primary victory on August 4 and the district’s R+16 Partisan Voter Index underpin the 92.5% Republican probability reflected in trader consensus. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with McClain’s 2024 margin exceeding 30 points and the district’s rural-suburban composition across Huron, St. Clair, Lapeer, and portions of Macomb and Oakland counties. Democrat Ray Pooley’s similarly uncontested nomination and minimal reported fundraising leave little immediate competitive pressure ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as unexpected national economic shifts, turnout surges in Democratic-leaning pockets, or candidate-specific events could narrow the margin, though structural factors continue to favor the Republican nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,277Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Lisa McClain’s unopposed primary victory on August 4 and the district’s R+16 Partisan Voter Index underpin the 92.5% Republican probability reflected in trader consensus. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with McClain’s 2024 margin exceeding 30 points and the district’s rural-suburban composition across Huron, St. Clair, Lapeer, and portions of Macomb and Oakland counties. Democrat Ray Pooley’s similarly uncontested nomination and minimal reported fundraising leave little immediate competitive pressure ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as unexpected national economic shifts, turnout surges in Democratic-leaning pockets, or candidate-specific events could narrow the margin, though structural factors continue to favor the Republican nominee.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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