Recent low winter maximum extents and persistent below-average conditions through midsummer have positioned trader consensus around a 2026 Arctic minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Record or near-record low March extents, combined with early melt onset and warm air intrusions over marginal seas, have accelerated seasonal decline, consistent with NSIDC and JAXA observations showing August extents around 6.2 million square kilometers. Long-term Arctic amplification and reduced multiyear ice provide the baseline trend, while this year's atmospheric patterns reinforce another low September minimum comparable to 2025's 4.86 million square kilometers. Updated model runs and continued monitoring of ice thickness and melt pond formation through late August will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the annual minimum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEstensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?
Estensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?
4,4-4,6 mln kmq 38.9%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq 27.8%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq 14.3%
<4 milioni di km² 13%
$67,716 Vol.
$67,716 Vol.
1 ott 2026
<4 milioni di km²
13%
4,0-4,2 mln km²
12%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq
14%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq
39%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq
28%
4,8-5 milioni kmq
6%
5 mln+ kmq
4%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq 38.9%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq 27.8%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq 14.3%
<4 milioni di km² 13%
$67,716 Vol.
$67,716 Vol.
1 ott 2026
<4 milioni di km²
$30,436 Vol.
13%
4,0-4,2 mln km²
$6,551 Vol.
12%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq
$2,920 Vol.
14%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq
$3,128 Vol.
39%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq
$6,805 Vol.
28%
4,8-5 milioni kmq
$3,402 Vol.
6%
5 mln+ kmq
$14,474 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum extents and persistent below-average conditions through midsummer have positioned trader consensus around a 2026 Arctic minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Record or near-record low March extents, combined with early melt onset and warm air intrusions over marginal seas, have accelerated seasonal decline, consistent with NSIDC and JAXA observations showing August extents around 6.2 million square kilometers. Long-term Arctic amplification and reduced multiyear ice provide the baseline trend, while this year's atmospheric patterns reinforce another low September minimum comparable to 2025's 4.86 million square kilometers. Updated model runs and continued monitoring of ice thickness and melt pond formation through late August will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the annual minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercato aperto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$67,716Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum extents and persistent below-average conditions through midsummer have positioned trader consensus around a 2026 Arctic minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Record or near-record low March extents, combined with early melt onset and warm air intrusions over marginal seas, have accelerated seasonal decline, consistent with NSIDC and JAXA observations showing August extents around 6.2 million square kilometers. Long-term Arctic amplification and reduced multiyear ice provide the baseline trend, while this year's atmospheric patterns reinforce another low September minimum comparable to 2025's 4.86 million square kilometers. Updated model runs and continued monitoring of ice thickness and melt pond formation through late August will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the annual minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$67,716Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low winter maximum extents and persistent below-average conditions through midsummer have positioned trader consensus around a 2026 Arctic minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Record or near-record low March extents, combined with early melt onset and warm air intrusions over marginal seas, have accelerated seasonal decline, consistent with NSIDC and JAXA observations showing August extents around 6.2 million square kilometers. Long-term Arctic amplification and reduced multiyear ice provide the baseline trend, while this year's atmospheric patterns reinforce another low September minimum comparable to 2025's 4.86 million square kilometers. Updated model runs and continued monitoring of ice thickness and melt pond formation through late August will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the annual minimum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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