Recent polling averages place National near 30% party vote ahead of the November 7 election, projecting roughly 35 seats under New Zealand’s MMP system and keeping outcomes clustered in the 30–39 seat range. Tight national support between National and Labour, combined with variable minor-party results for ACT, NZ First, and the Opportunities Party, produces wide swings in simulated seat totals. National’s coalition partners add seats but cannot fully offset shifts in electorate wins or overhang effects. Traders price the two central brackets nearly evenly because small movements in late polls or coalition negotiations could push totals across the 34–35 boundary before election night.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato35-39 39%
30-34 38%
40-44 18%
<25 1.4%
$21,332 Vol.
$21,332 Vol.
6 nov 2026
<25
7%
25-29
1%
30-34
38%
35-39
39%
40-44
18%
45-49
<1%
50+
<1%
35-39 39%
30-34 38%
40-44 18%
<25 1.4%
$21,332 Vol.
$21,332 Vol.
6 nov 2026
<25
$1,231 Vol.
7%
25-29
$928 Vol.
1%
30-34
$6,283 Vol.
38%
35-39
$5,144 Vol.
39%
40-44
$6,067 Vol.
18%
45-49
$811 Vol.
<1%
50+
$869 Vol.
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place National near 30% party vote ahead of the November 7 election, projecting roughly 35 seats under New Zealand’s MMP system and keeping outcomes clustered in the 30–39 seat range. Tight national support between National and Labour, combined with variable minor-party results for ACT, NZ First, and the Opportunities Party, produces wide swings in simulated seat totals. National’s coalition partners add seats but cannot fully offset shifts in electorate wins or overhang effects. Traders price the two central brackets nearly evenly because small movements in late polls or coalition negotiations could push totals across the 34–35 boundary before election night.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Volume
$21,332Data di fine
7 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place National near 30% party vote ahead of the November 7 election, projecting roughly 35 seats under New Zealand’s MMP system and keeping outcomes clustered in the 30–39 seat range. Tight national support between National and Labour, combined with variable minor-party results for ACT, NZ First, and the Opportunities Party, produces wide swings in simulated seat totals. National’s coalition partners add seats but cannot fully offset shifts in electorate wins or overhang effects. Traders price the two central brackets nearly evenly because small movements in late polls or coalition negotiations could push totals across the 34–35 boundary before election night.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$21,332Data di fine
7 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place National near 30% party vote ahead of the November 7 election, projecting roughly 35 seats under New Zealand’s MMP system and keeping outcomes clustered in the 30–39 seat range. Tight national support between National and Labour, combined with variable minor-party results for ACT, NZ First, and the Opportunities Party, produces wide swings in simulated seat totals. National’s coalition partners add seats but cannot fully offset shifts in electorate wins or overhang effects. Traders price the two central brackets nearly evenly because small movements in late polls or coalition negotiations could push totals across the 34–35 boundary before election night.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Will the Labour Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
35%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
56%
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
49%
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