OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAstra di OpenAI rilasciato il...?
Astra di OpenAI rilasciato il...?
3 settembre 52.8%
Nessun rilascio entro il 30 settembre 10%
Il 2 settembre o prima 8.0%
13 settembre 5%
NUOVO
$21,338 Vol.
NUOVO
$21,338 Vol.
2 set 2026
Il 2 settembre o prima
26%
3 settembre
53%
4 settembre
2%
5 settembre
2%
6 settembre
2%
7 settembre
3%
8 settembre
3%
9 settembre
2%
10 settembre
2%
11 settembre
1%
12 settembre
1%
13 settembre
5%
14 settembre
1%
15 settembre
1%
16 settembre
1%
17 settembre
1%
18 settembre
1%
19 settembre
1%
20 settembre
1%
21 settembre
2%
22 settembre
1%
23 settembre
2%
24 settembre
2%
25 settembre
3%
26 settembre
2%
27 settembre
4%
28 settembre
3%
29 settembre
1%
30 settembre
1%
Nessun rilascio entro il 30 settembre
14%
3 settembre 52.8%
Nessun rilascio entro il 30 settembre 10%
Il 2 settembre o prima 8.0%
13 settembre 5%
NUOVO
$21,338 Vol.
NUOVO
$21,338 Vol.
2 set 2026
Il 2 settembre o prima
$1,263 Vol.
26%
3 settembre
$1,330 Vol.
53%
4 settembre
$921 Vol.
2%
5 settembre
$526 Vol.
2%
6 settembre
$525 Vol.
2%
7 settembre
$520 Vol.
3%
8 settembre
$520 Vol.
3%
9 settembre
$520 Vol.
2%
10 settembre
$440 Vol.
2%
11 settembre
$733 Vol.
1%
12 settembre
$733 Vol.
1%
13 settembre
$657 Vol.
5%
14 settembre
$733 Vol.
1%
15 settembre
$950 Vol.
1%
16 settembre
$628 Vol.
1%
17 settembre
$452 Vol.
1%
18 settembre
$755 Vol.
1%
19 settembre
$755 Vol.
1%
20 settembre
$755 Vol.
1%
21 settembre
$462 Vol.
2%
22 settembre
$755 Vol.
1%
23 settembre
$462 Vol.
2%
24 settembre
$859 Vol.
2%
25 settembre
$462 Vol.
3%
26 settembre
$462 Vol.
2%
27 settembre
$939 Vol.
4%
28 settembre
$462 Vol.
3%
29 settembre
$755 Vol.
1%
30 settembre
$765 Vol.
1%
Nessun rilascio entro il 30 settembre
$1,239 Vol.
14%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
Volume
$21,338Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$21,338Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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