Recent U.S.-mediated diplomatic efforts produced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11 that included a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations. Both sides have since accused each other of violations after the pause expired, while Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled openness to direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a third country. These developments follow an earlier Orthodox Easter truce in April and competing unilateral pauses around early May, highlighting persistent challenges in sustaining de-escalation amid ongoing military operations and humanitarian priorities. Traders are monitoring whether sustained U.S. involvement or further prisoner exchanges can extend the current window of reduced kinetic activity toward a broader agreement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAccordo di cessate il fuoco Russia x Ucraina entro...?
Accordo di cessate il fuoco Russia x Ucraina entro...?
$632,752 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 maggio
3%
30 giugno
12%
31 ottobre
38%
31 dicembre
55%
$632,752 Vol.
31 maggio
$274,605 Vol.
3%
30 giugno
$197,638 Vol.
12%
31 ottobre
$57,065 Vol.
38%
31 dicembre
$104,027 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-mediated diplomatic efforts produced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11 that included a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations. Both sides have since accused each other of violations after the pause expired, while Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled openness to direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a third country. These developments follow an earlier Orthodox Easter truce in April and competing unilateral pauses around early May, highlighting persistent challenges in sustaining de-escalation amid ongoing military operations and humanitarian priorities. Traders are monitoring whether sustained U.S. involvement or further prisoner exchanges can extend the current window of reduced kinetic activity toward a broader agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$632,752Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-mediated diplomatic efforts produced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11 that included a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations. Both sides have since accused each other of violations after the pause expired, while Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled openness to direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a third country. These developments follow an earlier Orthodox Easter truce in April and competing unilateral pauses around early May, highlighting persistent challenges in sustaining de-escalation amid ongoing military operations and humanitarian priorities. Traders are monitoring whether sustained U.S. involvement or further prisoner exchanges can extend the current window of reduced kinetic activity toward a broader agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$632,752Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-mediated diplomatic efforts produced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11 that included a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations. Both sides have since accused each other of violations after the pause expired, while Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled openness to direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a third country. These developments follow an earlier Orthodox Easter truce in April and competing unilateral pauses around early May, highlighting persistent challenges in sustaining de-escalation amid ongoing military operations and humanitarian priorities. Traders are monitoring whether sustained U.S. involvement or further prisoner exchanges can extend the current window of reduced kinetic activity toward a broader agreement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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