MLSTP leads the São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election market at 88.3% implied probability following its narrow plurality in the September 27 vote, securing 17,551 ballots against ADI’s 17,184—a 367-vote margin confirmed by the National Electoral Commission. This outcome, the party’s first legislative win since 2002, stems from voter shifts after the January 2025 dismissal of the prior ADI-led government and the July presidential contest. MLSTP leader Américo Barros claimed over 26 of 55 seats, nearing the 28-seat majority threshold, while ADI concedes a technical tie near 24 seats each. Smaller parties including Basta, MCI-PS/PUN, PCD, MDFM, and Nossa Terra trail with far lower shares. Seat certification now rests with the Constitutional Court amid low turnout of roughly 41%.