CNN’s Decision Desk projected that Cornyn and Paxton would advance to a May 26 runoff after no candidate cleared 50 % in the primary, a result that caused a dramatic market swing

John Cornyn surges to 64%50%

CNN’s Decision Desk projected that Cornyn and Paxton would advance to a May 26 runoff after no candidate cleared 50 % in the primary, a result that caused a dramatic market swing upward

Cornyn released a “NEVER BACK DOWN” campaign ad and publicly sought Trump’s endorsement;

John Cornyn plunges to 14%29%

the same week a University of Houston poll showed Cornyn and Paxton virtually tied at 33‑34 % each, pulling his

Anti‑Hunt advertising spikes: AdImpact reports $5.8 million spent on attack ads against Hunt in the final weeks before the primary, contributing to a rapid 19‑point drop the next

Wesley Hunt plunges to 9%19%

Anti‑Hunt advertising spikes: AdImpact reports $5.8 million spent on attack ads against Hunt in the final weeks before the primary, contributing to a rapid 19‑point drop the next day

Beth Van Duyne speaks at a rally for state House candidate Armin Mizani, facing a heckler incident;

this local engagement does not translate into increased Senate primary support

| Court unseals Paxton‑Angela divorce records, media coalition gains full access |– the unsealing clarified the scandal’s details, but Paxton’s narrative of “victim of media

Ken Paxton surges to 65%21%

| Court unseals Paxton‑Angela divorce records, media coalition gains full access |– the unsealing clarified the scandal’s details, but Paxton’s narrative of “victim of media attacks” resonated with his base, reviving his market

Media coverage highlights Beth Van Duyne celebrating legislative successes and participating in Texas politics, but also notes her trailing far behind leading Senate candidates

Media coverage highlights Beth Van Duyne celebrating legislative successes and participating in Texas politics, but also notes her trailing far behind leading Senate candidates Ken Paxton and John Cornyn in polls and fundraising

U.S. House passes Agriculture Appropriations Act including Beth Van Duyne's END Act language to combat illicit tobacco imports, marking a legislative win but with limited impact

Beth Van Duyne dips to 0%1%

U.S. House passes Agriculture Appropriations Act including Beth Van Duyne's END Act language to combat illicit tobacco imports, marking a legislative win but with limited impact on her Senate primary viability

Beth Van Duyne co-founds the bipartisan Creator Economy Caucus to support online content creators, signaling her legislative focus but not boosting her Senate primary prospects

Beth Van Duyne plunges to 1%49%

Beth Van Duyne co-founds the bipartisan Creator Economy Caucus to support online content creators, signaling her legislative focus but not boosting her Senate primary prospects significantly

Paxton releases his first TV ad attacking incumbent Sen.

Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%

John Cornyn, officially announcing his intent to run for the U.S. Senate

Paxton releases first TV ad attacking incumbent Sen.

Ken Paxton jumps to 55%7%

John Cornyn, framing himself as the most conservative challenger

Ken Paxton officially announces his candidacy for U.S.

Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%

Senate, positioning himself as the most conservative challenger to incumbent John Cornyn

Ken Paxton officially announces he will run against incumbent Sen.

John Cornyn plunges to 34%16%

John Cornyn, turning the race into a high‑stakes intra‑party showdown