Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-220 seat House majority ahead of the November 2026 midterms, but generic ballot polls consistently show Democrats ahead by 4-11 points, consistent with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party. Forecasters including the Economist, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Cook Political Report rate dozens of Republican-held districts as competitive or leaning Democratic, with Democrats needing only a net gain of three to four seats for control. Mid-cycle redistricting provided Republicans modest gains in states like Texas, yet retirements skew heavily Republican and the overall map remains challenging. These factors underpin trader expectations of net GOP losses, producing the highest probabilities on seat totals in the low 190s or below while leaving higher ranges with lower implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoI seggi repubblicani alla Camera dopo le elezioni di medio termine del 2026?
I seggi repubblicani alla Camera dopo le elezioni di medio termine del 2026?
Sotto 190 25%
190-194 15%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$285,839 Vol.
$285,839 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Sotto 190
25%
190-194
15%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
11%
210-214
9%
215-219
7%
220-224
8%
225-229
7%
230+
3%
Sotto 190 25%
190-194 15%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$285,839 Vol.
$285,839 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Sotto 190
$32,488 Vol.
25%
190-194
$13,637 Vol.
15%
195-199
$32,609 Vol.
12%
200-204
$24,750 Vol.
12%
205-209
$40,227 Vol.
11%
210-214
$15,669 Vol.
9%
215-219
$11,450 Vol.
7%
220-224
$59,267 Vol.
8%
225-229
$24,767 Vol.
7%
230+
$30,975 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-220 seat House majority ahead of the November 2026 midterms, but generic ballot polls consistently show Democrats ahead by 4-11 points, consistent with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party. Forecasters including the Economist, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Cook Political Report rate dozens of Republican-held districts as competitive or leaning Democratic, with Democrats needing only a net gain of three to four seats for control. Mid-cycle redistricting provided Republicans modest gains in states like Texas, yet retirements skew heavily Republican and the overall map remains challenging. These factors underpin trader expectations of net GOP losses, producing the highest probabilities on seat totals in the low 190s or below while leaving higher ranges with lower implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$285,839Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-220 seat House majority ahead of the November 2026 midterms, but generic ballot polls consistently show Democrats ahead by 4-11 points, consistent with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party. Forecasters including the Economist, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Cook Political Report rate dozens of Republican-held districts as competitive or leaning Democratic, with Democrats needing only a net gain of three to four seats for control. Mid-cycle redistricting provided Republicans modest gains in states like Texas, yet retirements skew heavily Republican and the overall map remains challenging. These factors underpin trader expectations of net GOP losses, producing the highest probabilities on seat totals in the low 190s or below while leaving higher ranges with lower implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$285,839Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-220 seat House majority ahead of the November 2026 midterms, but generic ballot polls consistently show Democrats ahead by 4-11 points, consistent with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party. Forecasters including the Economist, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Cook Political Report rate dozens of Republican-held districts as competitive or leaning Democratic, with Democrats needing only a net gain of three to four seats for control. Mid-cycle redistricting provided Republicans modest gains in states like Texas, yet retirements skew heavily Republican and the overall map remains challenging. These factors underpin trader expectations of net GOP losses, producing the highest probabilities on seat totals in the low 190s or below while leaving higher ranges with lower implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il Partito Repubblicano avrà 47 o meno seggi al Senato dopo le elezioni di metà mandato del 2026?
26%
Sì
I Repubblicani deterranno 47–49 seggi al Senato e 193–207 seggi alla Camera dopo le elezioni di metà mandato del 2026?
23%
Sì
Il Partito Democratico controllerà la Camera dopo le elezioni di metà mandato del 2026?
88%
Sì
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