**Persistent U.S.-Iran hostilities and stalled diplomacy make a Trump-Pezeshkian bilateral meeting by December 31 highly improbable.** Indirect talks via envoys at the September 2026 UN General Assembly produced no direct leader engagement, despite Trump signaling openness. U.S. rejection of Iran’s seven-condition proposal—including sanctions relief, asset releases, and Strait of Hormuz reopening—left core disputes over the nuclear program, naval blockade, and regional ceasefires unresolved. Iranian officials described an atmosphere of distrust, while both sides continue preparing for potential escalation amid ongoing war that began in February. With midterms approaching and no scheduled summit, trader pricing reflects the absence of concrete bilateral momentum.