In the 2026 Texas 3rd congressional district race, incumbent Republican Keith Self holds a projected edge over Democrat Evan Hunt following redistricting that preserved a Republican lean while shifting suburban voter composition in counties such as Collin. Trader consensus favoring a 5-10 point Republican margin of victory reflects Self's incumbency, higher fundraising totals, and the district's underlying partisan baseline, offset by Hunt's strong small-donor support and Democratic gains in early voting in key precincts. National midterm turnout patterns and local economic concerns have kept the contest competitive, with final certification and any remaining ballot counts the primary factors that could adjust the exact spread from current live tallies.