Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomatic efforts continue to shape trader views on the low likelihood of a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia agreement before 2027. A U.S.-mediated three-day ceasefire in early May 2026, which included limited prisoner exchanges, temporarily reduced hostilities around Victory Day commemorations but failed to produce follow-on negotiations or address core territorial and security disputes. Russian officials have reiterated demands for Ukrainian concessions aligned with earlier war aims, while Ukrainian positions emphasize long-term security guarantees and rejection of short-term pauses. Frontline attrition persists without major shifts in control, and recent U.S. mediation rounds have not narrowed gaps on key issues such as borders or alliance commitments. These factors sustain market consensus that a binding peace remains distant.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$596,149 Vol.
$596,149 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$596,149 Vol.
$596,149 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomatic efforts continue to shape trader views on the low likelihood of a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia agreement before 2027. A U.S.-mediated three-day ceasefire in early May 2026, which included limited prisoner exchanges, temporarily reduced hostilities around Victory Day commemorations but failed to produce follow-on negotiations or address core territorial and security disputes. Russian officials have reiterated demands for Ukrainian concessions aligned with earlier war aims, while Ukrainian positions emphasize long-term security guarantees and rejection of short-term pauses. Frontline attrition persists without major shifts in control, and recent U.S. mediation rounds have not narrowed gaps on key issues such as borders or alliance commitments. These factors sustain market consensus that a binding peace remains distant.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$596,149Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomatic efforts continue to shape trader views on the low likelihood of a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia agreement before 2027. A U.S.-mediated three-day ceasefire in early May 2026, which included limited prisoner exchanges, temporarily reduced hostilities around Victory Day commemorations but failed to produce follow-on negotiations or address core territorial and security disputes. Russian officials have reiterated demands for Ukrainian concessions aligned with earlier war aims, while Ukrainian positions emphasize long-term security guarantees and rejection of short-term pauses. Frontline attrition persists without major shifts in control, and recent U.S. mediation rounds have not narrowed gaps on key issues such as borders or alliance commitments. These factors sustain market consensus that a binding peace remains distant.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$596,149Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomatic efforts continue to shape trader views on the low likelihood of a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia agreement before 2027. A U.S.-mediated three-day ceasefire in early May 2026, which included limited prisoner exchanges, temporarily reduced hostilities around Victory Day commemorations but failed to produce follow-on negotiations or address core territorial and security disputes. Russian officials have reiterated demands for Ukrainian concessions aligned with earlier war aims, while Ukrainian positions emphasize long-term security guarantees and rejection of short-term pauses. Frontline attrition persists without major shifts in control, and recent U.S. mediation rounds have not narrowed gaps on key issues such as borders or alliance commitments. These factors sustain market consensus that a binding peace remains distant.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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