Persistent territorial disputes remain the central barrier, with Russia demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from additional areas in Donetsk while Kyiv rejects ceding land without firm security guarantees. Recent US-mediated visits by envoys in early September restarted bilateral contacts and opened the door to trilateral talks possibly in October, yet these remain at a preliminary stage focused on limited steps such as energy infrastructure pauses rather than comprehensive settlement. Entrenched positions on both sides, continued frontline fighting, and the short timeline to October 31 underpin trader consensus against a signed deal. A rapid shift would require unexpected leader-level concessions or a major battlefield reversal within weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
2% probabilità
$12,474 Vol.
$12,474 Vol.
31 ott 2026
Sì
2% probabilità
$12,474 Vol.
$12,474 Vol.
31 ott 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent territorial disputes remain the central barrier, with Russia demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from additional areas in Donetsk while Kyiv rejects ceding land without firm security guarantees. Recent US-mediated visits by envoys in early September restarted bilateral contacts and opened the door to trilateral talks possibly in October, yet these remain at a preliminary stage focused on limited steps such as energy infrastructure pauses rather than comprehensive settlement. Entrenched positions on both sides, continued frontline fighting, and the short timeline to October 31 underpin trader consensus against a signed deal. A rapid shift would require unexpected leader-level concessions or a major battlefield reversal within weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$12,474Data di fine
1 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent territorial disputes remain the central barrier, with Russia demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from additional areas in Donetsk while Kyiv rejects ceding land without firm security guarantees. Recent US-mediated visits by envoys in early September restarted bilateral contacts and opened the door to trilateral talks possibly in October, yet these remain at a preliminary stage focused on limited steps such as energy infrastructure pauses rather than comprehensive settlement. Entrenched positions on both sides, continued frontline fighting, and the short timeline to October 31 underpin trader consensus against a signed deal. A rapid shift would require unexpected leader-level concessions or a major battlefield reversal within weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,474Data di fine
1 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Persistent territorial disputes remain the central barrier, with Russia demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from additional areas in Donetsk while Kyiv rejects ceding land without firm security guarantees. Recent US-mediated visits by envoys in early September restarted bilateral contacts and opened the door to trilateral talks possibly in October, yet these remain at a preliminary stage focused on limited steps such as energy infrastructure pauses rather than comprehensive settlement. Entrenched positions on both sides, continued frontline fighting, and the short timeline to October 31 underpin trader consensus against a signed deal. A rapid shift would require unexpected leader-level concessions or a major battlefield reversal within weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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