Mike Kennedy, the Republican incumbent shifted to the newly redrawn UT-04 after court-ordered redistricting, maintains a steady lead over Democrat Jonny Larsen in vote counting that stands near 15 points with over 90 percent of ballots tallied. The district's Republican tilt, Kennedy's name recognition from prior service in the neighboring seat, and a substantial fundraising edge have anchored trader expectations for a Republican margin in the 5-15 point range. Ongoing tabulation in key counties shows no material shift in the spread, while third-party votes remain limited. This positioning aligns with the implied probability reflected in current market pricing, though final certification and any late precinct updates could still adjust the precise margin.