**Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy advanced from the August 2026 top-two primary to face off again on November 3 in Washington’s 5th district.** Baumgartner captured roughly 47-48% in the primary, ahead of Conroy’s 19-21% and independent Nate Powell’s 15-16%, setting up a rematch of their 2024 contest where the Republican prevailed by more than 20 points. The district’s eastern Washington base, including Spokane and surrounding counties, carries a structural Republican advantage reflected in “Solid R” ratings from forecasters. Trader pricing near 50% for each candidate alongside clustered probabilities on modest Republican margins indicates the wisdom of crowds sees a narrower spread than 2024, driven by the midterm environment under the current administration, sparse post-primary polling, and questions over turnout among key voting blocs. Scheduled events such as candidate debates or late shifts in national sentiment could widen or compress the final margin before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWA-05 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera
WA-05 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera
Repubblicano 15-20% 43%
Repubblicano 20-25% 41%
Repubblicano 10-15% 37%
Repubblicano 5-10% 37%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano 30%+
37%
Repubblicano 25-30%
36%
Repubblicano 20-25%
41%
Repubblicano 15-20%
43%
Repubblicano 10-15%
37%
Repubblicano 5-10%
37%
Repubblicano 0-5%
37%
Vittoria del Democratico
37%
Repubblicano 15-20% 43%
Repubblicano 20-25% 41%
Repubblicano 10-15% 37%
Repubblicano 5-10% 37%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano 30%+
$0 Vol.
37%
Repubblicano 25-30%
$0 Vol.
36%
Repubblicano 20-25%
$0 Vol.
41%
Repubblicano 15-20%
$0 Vol.
43%
Repubblicano 10-15%
$0 Vol.
37%
Repubblicano 5-10%
$0 Vol.
37%
Repubblicano 0-5%
$0 Vol.
37%
Vittoria del Democratico
$0 Vol.
37%
The 2026 WA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy advanced from the August 2026 top-two primary to face off again on November 3 in Washington’s 5th district.** Baumgartner captured roughly 47-48% in the primary, ahead of Conroy’s 19-21% and independent Nate Powell’s 15-16%, setting up a rematch of their 2024 contest where the Republican prevailed by more than 20 points. The district’s eastern Washington base, including Spokane and surrounding counties, carries a structural Republican advantage reflected in “Solid R” ratings from forecasters. Trader pricing near 50% for each candidate alongside clustered probabilities on modest Republican margins indicates the wisdom of crowds sees a narrower spread than 2024, driven by the midterm environment under the current administration, sparse post-primary polling, and questions over turnout among key voting blocs. Scheduled events such as candidate debates or late shifts in national sentiment could widen or compress the final margin before resolution.
The 2026 WA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 WA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy advanced from the August 2026 top-two primary to face off again on November 3 in Washington’s 5th district.** Baumgartner captured roughly 47-48% in the primary, ahead of Conroy’s 19-21% and independent Nate Powell’s 15-16%, setting up a rematch of their 2024 contest where the Republican prevailed by more than 20 points. The district’s eastern Washington base, including Spokane and surrounding counties, carries a structural Republican advantage reflected in “Solid R” ratings from forecasters. Trader pricing near 50% for each candidate alongside clustered probabilities on modest Republican margins indicates the wisdom of crowds sees a narrower spread than 2024, driven by the midterm environment under the current administration, sparse post-primary polling, and questions over turnout among key voting blocs. Scheduled events such as candidate debates or late shifts in national sentiment could widen or compress the final margin before resolution.
The 2026 WA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy advanced from the August 2026 top-two primary to face off again on November 3 in Washington’s 5th district.** Baumgartner captured roughly 47-48% in the primary, ahead of Conroy’s 19-21% and independent Nate Powell’s 15-16%, setting up a rematch of their 2024 contest where the Republican prevailed by more than 20 points. The district’s eastern Washington base, including Spokane and surrounding counties, carries a structural Republican advantage reflected in “Solid R” ratings from forecasters. Trader pricing near 50% for each candidate alongside clustered probabilities on modest Republican margins indicates the wisdom of crowds sees a narrower spread than 2024, driven by the midterm environment under the current administration, sparse post-primary polling, and questions over turnout among key voting blocs. Scheduled events such as candidate debates or late shifts in national sentiment could widen or compress the final margin before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni per la Camera del distretto WA-06 nel 2026 con un margine tra il 30% e il 35%?
43%
Sì
Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni della Camera WA-02 del 2026 con un margine tra il 35% e il 40%?
40%
Sì
Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni per la Camera del 2026 nel distretto WA-07 con il 90% o più dei voti?
42%
Sì
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