Recent confidential SEC filings and reports of SpaceX targeting an IPO later in 2026 at valuations exceeding $1.75 trillion have anchored trader consensus around the 1.75-2.00T range, which carries a 57% implied probability. Private-market trades on secondary platforms reflect a current valuation near $1.51 trillion, fueled by Starlink’s subscriber growth past nine million and record Falcon 9 launch cadence that drove 2025 revenue estimates above $15 billion. Analysts note that achieving a $2 trillion-plus outcome would require sustained margin expansion and successful Starship milestones before listing, while downside scenarios below $1.5 trillion remain limited by strong institutional demand and comparable space-sector multiples. Upcoming catalysts include potential June pricing and final regulatory approvals that could refine these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale sarà la valutazione dell'IPO di SpaceX?
Quale sarà la valutazione dell'IPO di SpaceX?
1,75-2,00T 61%
2,25-2,50T 7.7%
2,50T+ 5.5%
1,50-1,75T 5.0%
$133,671 Vol.
$133,671 Vol.
<1,25T
1%
1,25-1,50T
4%
1,50-1,75T
21%
1,75-2,00T
59%
2,00-2,25 T
13%
2,25-2,50T
8%
2,50T+
5%
1,75-2,00T 61%
2,25-2,50T 7.7%
2,50T+ 5.5%
1,50-1,75T 5.0%
$133,671 Vol.
$133,671 Vol.
<1,25T
$60,323 Vol.
1%
1,25-1,50T
$16,039 Vol.
4%
1,50-1,75T
$9,240 Vol.
21%
1,75-2,00T
$12,949 Vol.
59%
2,00-2,25 T
$14,286 Vol.
13%
2,25-2,50T
$10,055 Vol.
8%
2,50T+
$10,779 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent confidential SEC filings and reports of SpaceX targeting an IPO later in 2026 at valuations exceeding $1.75 trillion have anchored trader consensus around the 1.75-2.00T range, which carries a 57% implied probability. Private-market trades on secondary platforms reflect a current valuation near $1.51 trillion, fueled by Starlink’s subscriber growth past nine million and record Falcon 9 launch cadence that drove 2025 revenue estimates above $15 billion. Analysts note that achieving a $2 trillion-plus outcome would require sustained margin expansion and successful Starship milestones before listing, while downside scenarios below $1.5 trillion remain limited by strong institutional demand and comparable space-sector multiples. Upcoming catalysts include potential June pricing and final regulatory approvals that could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$133,671Mercato aperto
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent confidential SEC filings and reports of SpaceX targeting an IPO later in 2026 at valuations exceeding $1.75 trillion have anchored trader consensus around the 1.75-2.00T range, which carries a 57% implied probability. Private-market trades on secondary platforms reflect a current valuation near $1.51 trillion, fueled by Starlink’s subscriber growth past nine million and record Falcon 9 launch cadence that drove 2025 revenue estimates above $15 billion. Analysts note that achieving a $2 trillion-plus outcome would require sustained margin expansion and successful Starship milestones before listing, while downside scenarios below $1.5 trillion remain limited by strong institutional demand and comparable space-sector multiples. Upcoming catalysts include potential June pricing and final regulatory approvals that could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$133,671Mercato aperto
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent confidential SEC filings and reports of SpaceX targeting an IPO later in 2026 at valuations exceeding $1.75 trillion have anchored trader consensus around the 1.75-2.00T range, which carries a 57% implied probability. Private-market trades on secondary platforms reflect a current valuation near $1.51 trillion, fueled by Starlink’s subscriber growth past nine million and record Falcon 9 launch cadence that drove 2025 revenue estimates above $15 billion. Analysts note that achieving a $2 trillion-plus outcome would require sustained margin expansion and successful Starship milestones before listing, while downside scenarios below $1.5 trillion remain limited by strong institutional demand and comparable space-sector multiples. Upcoming catalysts include potential June pricing and final regulatory approvals that could refine these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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