Jerome Powell’s four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 15, 2026, anchoring trader consensus on an imminent departure. Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as successor has cleared the path for an orderly transition at the central bank, while Powell has publicly stated he will remain on the Board of Governors for an undetermined period to help preserve institutional independence amid ongoing political scrutiny. These confirmed developments, including Powell’s final policy meeting and explicit timeline statements, explain why the two earliest weekly buckets now capture the large majority of market probability, with later windows priced at minimal levels.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWhen will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
May 15–22 57.0%
May 23–29 38.4%
May 30–June 5 5.7%
June 6–12 2.5%
$166,756 Vol.
$166,756 Vol.
3 lug 2026
May 15–22
52%
May 23–29
40%
May 30–June 5
6%
June 6–12
3%
June 13–19
2%
June 20–26
1%
June 27–July 3
1%
After July 3
1%
May 15–22 57.0%
May 23–29 38.4%
May 30–June 5 5.7%
June 6–12 2.5%
$166,756 Vol.
$166,756 Vol.
3 lug 2026
May 15–22
$63,403 Vol.
52%
May 23–29
$8,245 Vol.
40%
May 30–June 5
$9,117 Vol.
6%
June 6–12
$9,039 Vol.
3%
June 13–19
$8,855 Vol.
2%
June 20–26
$10,068 Vol.
1%
June 27–July 3
$5,179 Vol.
1%
After July 3
$15,899 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jerome Powell’s four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 15, 2026, anchoring trader consensus on an imminent departure. Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as successor has cleared the path for an orderly transition at the central bank, while Powell has publicly stated he will remain on the Board of Governors for an undetermined period to help preserve institutional independence amid ongoing political scrutiny. These confirmed developments, including Powell’s final policy meeting and explicit timeline statements, explain why the two earliest weekly buckets now capture the large majority of market probability, with later windows priced at minimal levels.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$166,756Data di fine
3 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jerome Powell’s four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 15, 2026, anchoring trader consensus on an imminent departure. Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as successor has cleared the path for an orderly transition at the central bank, while Powell has publicly stated he will remain on the Board of Governors for an undetermined period to help preserve institutional independence amid ongoing political scrutiny. These confirmed developments, including Powell’s final policy meeting and explicit timeline statements, explain why the two earliest weekly buckets now capture the large majority of market probability, with later windows priced at minimal levels.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$166,756Data di fine
3 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Jerome Powell’s four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 15, 2026, anchoring trader consensus on an imminent departure. Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as successor has cleared the path for an orderly transition at the central bank, while Powell has publicly stated he will remain on the Board of Governors for an undetermined period to help preserve institutional independence amid ongoing political scrutiny. These confirmed developments, including Powell’s final policy meeting and explicit timeline statements, explain why the two earliest weekly buckets now capture the large majority of market probability, with later windows priced at minimal levels.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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