Recent escalations in U.S.-Iran naval tensions have anchored trader sentiment on the Strait of Hormuz market, with the United States positioned as the clear frontrunner due to its established Central Command presence and ongoing enforcement operations. Heightened risks to global oil transit—accounting for nearly one-fifth of seaborne crude—have elevated implied volatility in energy futures and tanker charter rates, while Iran’s explicit warnings to European nations have suppressed probabilities for additional participants by signaling potential escalation costs. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus that only minimal additional transits will occur before the May 31 cutoff, given the narrow window and ongoing blockades. Key upcoming catalysts include any shift in U.S.-Iran negotiations or further IRGC naval activity, both of which could materially alter positioning in this high-stakes energy chokepoint.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
$1,019,024 Vol.
31 mag 2026
United Kingdom
3%
France
4%
Germany
1%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
1%
Japan
<1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
1%
Pakistan
1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
5%
Bahrain
1%
Qatar
1%
Kuwait
1%
Oman
1%
South Korea
<1%
Australia
<1%
$1,019,024 Vol.
United Kingdom
$163,111 Vol.
3%
France
$96,116 Vol.
4%
Germany
$171,389 Vol.
1%
Italy
$74,400 Vol.
1%
Netherlands
$51,341 Vol.
1%
Japan
$113,222 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$19,730 Vol.
<1%
India
$7,441 Vol.
2%
Greece
$18,417 Vol.
1%
Pakistan
$11,940 Vol.
1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,310 Vol.
2%
UAE
$6,012 Vol.
5%
Bahrain
$19,791 Vol.
1%
Qatar
$5,816 Vol.
1%
Kuwait
$3,475 Vol.
1%
Oman
$4,506 Vol.
1%
South Korea
$84,221 Vol.
<1%
Australia
$72,142 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Recent escalations in U.S.-Iran naval tensions have anchored trader sentiment on the Strait of Hormuz market, with the United States positioned as the clear frontrunner due to its established Central Command presence and ongoing enforcement operations. Heightened risks to global oil transit—accounting for nearly one-fifth of seaborne crude—have elevated implied volatility in energy futures and tanker charter rates, while Iran’s explicit warnings to European nations have suppressed probabilities for additional participants by signaling potential escalation costs. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus that only minimal additional transits will occur before the May 31 cutoff, given the narrow window and ongoing blockades. Key upcoming catalysts include any shift in U.S.-Iran negotiations or further IRGC naval activity, both of which could materially alter positioning in this high-stakes energy chokepoint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercato aperto: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$1,019,024Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Recent escalations in U.S.-Iran naval tensions have anchored trader sentiment on the Strait of Hormuz market, with the United States positioned as the clear frontrunner due to its established Central Command presence and ongoing enforcement operations. Heightened risks to global oil transit—accounting for nearly one-fifth of seaborne crude—have elevated implied volatility in energy futures and tanker charter rates, while Iran’s explicit warnings to European nations have suppressed probabilities for additional participants by signaling potential escalation costs. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus that only minimal additional transits will occur before the May 31 cutoff, given the narrow window and ongoing blockades. Key upcoming catalysts include any shift in U.S.-Iran negotiations or further IRGC naval activity, both of which could materially alter positioning in this high-stakes energy chokepoint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$1,019,024Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent escalations in U.S.-Iran naval tensions have anchored trader sentiment on the Strait of Hormuz market, with the United States positioned as the clear frontrunner due to its established Central Command presence and ongoing enforcement operations. Heightened risks to global oil transit—accounting for nearly one-fifth of seaborne crude—have elevated implied volatility in energy futures and tanker charter rates, while Iran’s explicit warnings to European nations have suppressed probabilities for additional participants by signaling potential escalation costs. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus that only minimal additional transits will occur before the May 31 cutoff, given the narrow window and ongoing blockades. Key upcoming catalysts include any shift in U.S.-Iran negotiations or further IRGC naval activity, both of which could materially alter positioning in this high-stakes energy chokepoint.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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