Ongoing U.S. naval operations and Iran's blockade enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz continue to elevate risk premiums in global oil benchmarks, with Brent crude incorporating a persistent geopolitical premium amid disrupted flows representing roughly 20% of seaborne trade. Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of potential multinational participation, driven by recent U.S. destroyer transits and calls for allied support to secure commercial routes. Key upcoming catalysts include further naval commitments ahead of the May 31 resolution date, alongside any shifts in oil supply data or central bank commentary on energy-driven inflation pressures that could influence broader risk appetite.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
$1,014,118 Vol.
31 mag 2026
United Kingdom
3%
France
4%
Germany
1%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
<1%
Japan
<1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
1%
Pakistan
1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
5%
Bahrain
1%
Qatar
1%
Kuwait
1%
Oman
1%
South Korea
1%
Australia
<1%
$1,014,118 Vol.
United Kingdom
$162,960 Vol.
3%
France
$96,018 Vol.
4%
Germany
$168,275 Vol.
1%
Italy
$74,400 Vol.
1%
Netherlands
$50,968 Vol.
<1%
Japan
$112,825 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$19,730 Vol.
<1%
India
$7,441 Vol.
2%
Greece
$18,417 Vol.
1%
Pakistan
$11,940 Vol.
1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,310 Vol.
2%
UAE
$6,012 Vol.
5%
Bahrain
$19,791 Vol.
1%
Qatar
$5,816 Vol.
1%
Kuwait
$3,475 Vol.
1%
Oman
$4,506 Vol.
1%
South Korea
$83,447 Vol.
1%
Australia
$72,142 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing U.S. naval operations and Iran's blockade enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz continue to elevate risk premiums in global oil benchmarks, with Brent crude incorporating a persistent geopolitical premium amid disrupted flows representing roughly 20% of seaborne trade. Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of potential multinational participation, driven by recent U.S. destroyer transits and calls for allied support to secure commercial routes. Key upcoming catalysts include further naval commitments ahead of the May 31 resolution date, alongside any shifts in oil supply data or central bank commentary on energy-driven inflation pressures that could influence broader risk appetite.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercato aperto: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$1,014,118Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing U.S. naval operations and Iran's blockade enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz continue to elevate risk premiums in global oil benchmarks, with Brent crude incorporating a persistent geopolitical premium amid disrupted flows representing roughly 20% of seaborne trade. Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of potential multinational participation, driven by recent U.S. destroyer transits and calls for allied support to secure commercial routes. Key upcoming catalysts include further naval commitments ahead of the May 31 resolution date, alongside any shifts in oil supply data or central bank commentary on energy-driven inflation pressures that could influence broader risk appetite.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$1,014,118Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S. naval operations and Iran's blockade enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz continue to elevate risk premiums in global oil benchmarks, with Brent crude incorporating a persistent geopolitical premium amid disrupted flows representing roughly 20% of seaborne trade. Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of potential multinational participation, driven by recent U.S. destroyer transits and calls for allied support to secure commercial routes. Key upcoming catalysts include further naval commitments ahead of the May 31 resolution date, alongside any shifts in oil supply data or central bank commentary on energy-driven inflation pressures that could influence broader risk appetite.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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