Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically launching each September, drives the overwhelming 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 in 2026. This pattern reflects stable supply chains, iterative hardware upgrades like improved chips and cameras, and long-term development roadmaps that rarely slip. Traders price in this reliability based on decades of precedent rather than speculation. Even so, realistic risks such as major semiconductor shortages, regulatory blocks on features in major markets, or last-minute design changes could still push a launch into early 2027, though none appear imminent based on current verified developments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoApple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
Apple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
99% probabilità
$173,240 Vol.
$173,240 Vol.
30 dic 2026
99% probabilità
$173,240 Vol.
$173,240 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically launching each September, drives the overwhelming 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 in 2026. This pattern reflects stable supply chains, iterative hardware upgrades like improved chips and cameras, and long-term development roadmaps that rarely slip. Traders price in this reliability based on decades of precedent rather than speculation. Even so, realistic risks such as major semiconductor shortages, regulatory blocks on features in major markets, or last-minute design changes could still push a launch into early 2027, though none appear imminent based on current verified developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$173,240Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically launching each September, drives the overwhelming 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 in 2026. This pattern reflects stable supply chains, iterative hardware upgrades like improved chips and cameras, and long-term development roadmaps that rarely slip. Traders price in this reliability based on decades of precedent rather than speculation. Even so, realistic risks such as major semiconductor shortages, regulatory blocks on features in major markets, or last-minute design changes could still push a launch into early 2027, though none appear imminent based on current verified developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$173,240Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically launching each September, drives the overwhelming 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 in 2026. This pattern reflects stable supply chains, iterative hardware upgrades like improved chips and cameras, and long-term development roadmaps that rarely slip. Traders price in this reliability based on decades of precedent rather than speculation. Even so, realistic risks such as major semiconductor shortages, regulatory blocks on features in major markets, or last-minute design changes could still push a launch into early 2027, though none appear imminent based on current verified developments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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