President Trump’s January 2026 reversal, when he explicitly ruled out military force to acquire Greenland and abandoned related tariff threats after Davos talks with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. invasion this year. Subsequent U.S.-Denmark negotiations have centered on expanding American access to three additional bases on the Danish territory through standard defense agreements rather than coercion, with Pentagon statements in March and April confirming the shift to cooperative Arctic security planning. Greenland’s self-government and NATO’s collective defense commitments remain unchanged, while no congressional authorizations, troop deployments, or official invasion directives have emerged in the intervening months. These developments have aligned market pricing with the absence of any verifiable path to armed action before year-end.