The Trump administration's May 2026 actions explain the elevated "Yes" odds. On May 28, Secretary of State Marco Rubio designated Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV) as Specially Designated Global Terrorists under Executive Order 13224, with formal Foreign Terrorist Organization status effective June 5. The move aligns with the administration's pattern of applying terrorism designations to major Latin American criminal networks involved in drug trafficking and violence, following similar steps against Mexican cartels and Tren de Aragua. It followed direct advocacy by Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro during White House meetings and occurred despite objections from the Lula government over sovereignty and legal distinctions between organized crime and terrorism. With the designations already finalized months ahead of the December 31 deadline, trader consensus reflects the completed policy outcome rather than ongoing uncertainty.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
NUOVO
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31 dic 2026
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31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This includes designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), as well as executive action by the President, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new federal designation that formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the President, DHS, or FBI, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's May 2026 actions explain the elevated "Yes" odds. On May 28, Secretary of State Marco Rubio designated Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV) as Specially Designated Global Terrorists under Executive Order 13224, with formal Foreign Terrorist Organization status effective June 5. The move aligns with the administration's pattern of applying terrorism designations to major Latin American criminal networks involved in drug trafficking and violence, following similar steps against Mexican cartels and Tren de Aragua. It followed direct advocacy by Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro during White House meetings and occurred despite objections from the Lula government over sovereignty and legal distinctions between organized crime and terrorism. With the designations already finalized months ahead of the December 31 deadline, trader consensus reflects the completed policy outcome rather than ongoing uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This includes designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), as well as executive action by the President, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new federal designation that formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the President, DHS, or FBI, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), as well as executive action by the President, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new federal designation that formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the President, DHS, or FBI, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 28, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$3,092Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 28, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This includes designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), as well as executive action by the President, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new federal designation that formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the President, DHS, or FBI, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's May 2026 actions explain the elevated "Yes" odds. On May 28, Secretary of State Marco Rubio designated Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV) as Specially Designated Global Terrorists under Executive Order 13224, with formal Foreign Terrorist Organization status effective June 5. The move aligns with the administration's pattern of applying terrorism designations to major Latin American criminal networks involved in drug trafficking and violence, following similar steps against Mexican cartels and Tren de Aragua. It followed direct advocacy by Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro during White House meetings and occurred despite objections from the Lula government over sovereignty and legal distinctions between organized crime and terrorism. With the designations already finalized months ahead of the December 31 deadline, trader consensus reflects the completed policy outcome rather than ongoing uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This includes designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), as well as executive action by the President, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new federal designation that formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the President, DHS, or FBI, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), as well as executive action by the President, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new federal designation that formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the President, DHS, or FBI, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,092Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 28, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's May 2026 actions explain the elevated "Yes" odds. On May 28, Secretary of State Marco Rubio designated Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV) as Specially Designated Global Terrorists under Executive Order 13224, with formal Foreign Terrorist Organization status effective June 5. The move aligns with the administration's pattern of applying terrorism designations to major Latin American criminal networks involved in drug trafficking and violence, following similar steps against Mexican cartels and Tren de Aragua. It followed direct advocacy by Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro during White House meetings and occurred despite objections from the Lula government over sovereignty and legal distinctions between organized crime and terrorism. With the designations already finalized months ahead of the December 31 deadline, trader consensus reflects the completed policy outcome rather than ongoing uncertainty.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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