California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, features a Partisan Voter Index of D+36 and has long favored Democratic candidates. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but California's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, locking in the party outcome. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration (roughly 64% Democratic) and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 points. Trader consensus at 98.2% for Democrats versus under 3% for Republicans aligns with this structural reality. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in surge or unforeseen disqualification, neither of which has emerged in recent cycles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$21,763 Vol.
$21,763 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
98%
共和党
3%
$21,763 Vol.
$21,763 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$14,980 Vol.
98%
共和党
$6,783 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, features a Partisan Voter Index of D+36 and has long favored Democratic candidates. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but California's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, locking in the party outcome. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration (roughly 64% Democratic) and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 points. Trader consensus at 98.2% for Democrats versus under 3% for Republicans aligns with this structural reality. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in surge or unforeseen disqualification, neither of which has emerged in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$21,763終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, features a Partisan Voter Index of D+36 and has long favored Democratic candidates. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but California's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, locking in the party outcome. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration (roughly 64% Democratic) and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 points. Trader consensus at 98.2% for Democrats versus under 3% for Republicans aligns with this structural reality. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in surge or unforeseen disqualification, neither of which has emerged in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$21,763終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, features a Partisan Voter Index of D+36 and has long favored Democratic candidates. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but California's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, locking in the party outcome. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration (roughly 64% Democratic) and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 points. Trader consensus at 98.2% for Democrats versus under 3% for Republicans aligns with this structural reality. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in surge or unforeseen disqualification, neither of which has emerged in recent cycles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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