In California's 38th congressional district, redistricting created an open seat after the incumbent shifted districts, producing a D+8 partisan lean that has kept the general election between Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas closely contested ahead of the November 3 vote. Primary results showed Solis advancing with 47.6% while Casas captured 35.8%, splitting the remaining Democratic vote and signaling solid but not overwhelming support for the frontrunner in this Los Angeles-Orange County mix of suburbs. Trader consensus at even odds for the top contenders reflects expectations of a narrow margin driven by turnout patterns, candidate name recognition, and national midterm dynamics. A stronger-than-expected Republican performance in battleground precincts or late shifts in voter enthusiasm could widen the gap, while high Democratic mobilization in core areas would likely preserve the current tight positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日CA -38下院選挙勝利率
CA -38下院選挙勝利率
民主党 30％以上 40%
共和党勝利 39%
民主党 20〜25% 39%
民主党 15-20％ 38%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党 30％以上
40%
民主党 25-30%
37%
民主党 20〜25%
39%
民主党 15-20％
38%
民主党 10〜15%
37%
民主党 5-10%
38%
民主党 0〜5%
36%
共和党勝利
39%
民主党 30％以上 40%
共和党勝利 39%
民主党 20〜25% 39%
民主党 15-20％ 38%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党 30％以上
$0 Vol.
40%
民主党 25-30%
$0 Vol.
37%
民主党 20〜25%
$0 Vol.
39%
民主党 15-20％
$0 Vol.
38%
民主党 10〜15%
$0 Vol.
37%
民主党 5-10%
$0 Vol.
38%
民主党 0〜5%
$0 Vol.
36%
共和党勝利
$10 Vol.
39%
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In California's 38th congressional district, redistricting created an open seat after the incumbent shifted districts, producing a D+8 partisan lean that has kept the general election between Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas closely contested ahead of the November 3 vote. Primary results showed Solis advancing with 47.6% while Casas captured 35.8%, splitting the remaining Democratic vote and signaling solid but not overwhelming support for the frontrunner in this Los Angeles-Orange County mix of suburbs. Trader consensus at even odds for the top contenders reflects expectations of a narrow margin driven by turnout patterns, candidate name recognition, and national midterm dynamics. A stronger-than-expected Republican performance in battleground precincts or late shifts in voter enthusiasm could widen the gap, while high Democratic mobilization in core areas would likely preserve the current tight positioning.
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
音量
$10終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In California's 38th congressional district, redistricting created an open seat after the incumbent shifted districts, producing a D+8 partisan lean that has kept the general election between Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas closely contested ahead of the November 3 vote. Primary results showed Solis advancing with 47.6% while Casas captured 35.8%, splitting the remaining Democratic vote and signaling solid but not overwhelming support for the frontrunner in this Los Angeles-Orange County mix of suburbs. Trader consensus at even odds for the top contenders reflects expectations of a narrow margin driven by turnout patterns, candidate name recognition, and national midterm dynamics. A stronger-than-expected Republican performance in battleground precincts or late shifts in voter enthusiasm could widen the gap, while high Democratic mobilization in core areas would likely preserve the current tight positioning.
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$10終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...In California's 38th congressional district, redistricting created an open seat after the incumbent shifted districts, producing a D+8 partisan lean that has kept the general election between Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas closely contested ahead of the November 3 vote. Primary results showed Solis advancing with 47.6% while Casas captured 35.8%, splitting the remaining Democratic vote and signaling solid but not overwhelming support for the frontrunner in this Los Angeles-Orange County mix of suburbs. Trader consensus at even odds for the top contenders reflects expectations of a narrow margin driven by turnout patterns, candidate name recognition, and national midterm dynamics. A stronger-than-expected Republican performance in battleground precincts or late shifts in voter enthusiasm could widen the gap, while high Democratic mobilization in core areas would likely preserve the current tight positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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