Market-implied odds assign a 93.5 percent probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, driven primarily by April’s hotter-than-expected CPI reading of 0.9 percent month-over-month and resilient labor-market data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment holding at 4.3 percent. These releases have reinforced trader consensus that sticky inflation pressures, amplified by elevated energy prices, outweigh any near-term growth concerns and align with the Fed’s current neutral stance at the 3.50–3.75 percent target range. Recent central-bank communications continue to emphasize data dependence ahead of the June FOMC and upcoming May CPI release, leaving limited room for a surprise shift unless inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens materially in the coming weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 4.0%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 2.1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$5,602,312 Vol.
$5,602,312 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
2%
変更なし
94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
変更なし 94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 4.0%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 2.1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$5,602,312 Vol.
$5,602,312 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$554,886 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$425,006 Vol.
2%
変更なし
$663,128 Vol.
94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$3,408,309 Vol.
4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$550,984 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds assign a 93.5 percent probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, driven primarily by April’s hotter-than-expected CPI reading of 0.9 percent month-over-month and resilient labor-market data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment holding at 4.3 percent. These releases have reinforced trader consensus that sticky inflation pressures, amplified by elevated energy prices, outweigh any near-term growth concerns and align with the Fed’s current neutral stance at the 3.50–3.75 percent target range. Recent central-bank communications continue to emphasize data dependence ahead of the June FOMC and upcoming May CPI release, leaving limited room for a surprise shift unless inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens materially in the coming weeks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$5,602,312終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds assign a 93.5 percent probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, driven primarily by April’s hotter-than-expected CPI reading of 0.9 percent month-over-month and resilient labor-market data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment holding at 4.3 percent. These releases have reinforced trader consensus that sticky inflation pressures, amplified by elevated energy prices, outweigh any near-term growth concerns and align with the Fed’s current neutral stance at the 3.50–3.75 percent target range. Recent central-bank communications continue to emphasize data dependence ahead of the June FOMC and upcoming May CPI release, leaving limited room for a surprise shift unless inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens materially in the coming weeks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$5,602,312終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds assign a 93.5 percent probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, driven primarily by April’s hotter-than-expected CPI reading of 0.9 percent month-over-month and resilient labor-market data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment holding at 4.3 percent. These releases have reinforced trader consensus that sticky inflation pressures, amplified by elevated energy prices, outweigh any near-term growth concerns and align with the Fed’s current neutral stance at the 3.50–3.75 percent target range. Recent central-bank communications continue to emphasize data dependence ahead of the June FOMC and upcoming May CPI release, leaving limited room for a surprise shift unless inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens materially in the coming weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問