Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data at 3.8% year-over-year and resilient nonfarm payrolls have driven the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% since April amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal and elevated energy prices from Middle East developments, traders see limited room for a 25-basis-point shift in either direction. This consensus reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance and recent communications stressing caution over premature policy adjustments. A sharper cooling in May or June labor indicators or surprise downside CPI prints could still tilt odds toward a cut, while renewed price pressures might support a hike.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 3.9%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 2.2%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$5,652,558 Vol.
$5,652,558 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
2%
変更なし
94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
変更なし 94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 3.9%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 2.2%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$5,652,558 Vol.
$5,652,558 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$561,034 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$450,110 Vol.
2%
変更なし
$669,337 Vol.
94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$3,414,613 Vol.
4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$557,466 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data at 3.8% year-over-year and resilient nonfarm payrolls have driven the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% since April amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal and elevated energy prices from Middle East developments, traders see limited room for a 25-basis-point shift in either direction. This consensus reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance and recent communications stressing caution over premature policy adjustments. A sharper cooling in May or June labor indicators or surprise downside CPI prints could still tilt odds toward a cut, while renewed price pressures might support a hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$5,652,558終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data at 3.8% year-over-year and resilient nonfarm payrolls have driven the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% since April amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal and elevated energy prices from Middle East developments, traders see limited room for a 25-basis-point shift in either direction. This consensus reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance and recent communications stressing caution over premature policy adjustments. A sharper cooling in May or June labor indicators or surprise downside CPI prints could still tilt odds toward a cut, while renewed price pressures might support a hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$5,652,558終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data at 3.8% year-over-year and resilient nonfarm payrolls have driven the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% since April amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal and elevated energy prices from Middle East developments, traders see limited room for a 25-basis-point shift in either direction. This consensus reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance and recent communications stressing caution over premature policy adjustments. A sharper cooling in May or June labor indicators or surprise downside CPI prints could still tilt odds toward a cut, while renewed price pressures might support a hike.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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