Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient nonfarm payrolls, have anchored trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April decision and inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% goal, market-implied odds reflect the central bank’s data-dependent caution and limited scope for near-term policy shifts. A sharper labor market slowdown in upcoming May or June releases or cooler May CPI prints due June 10 could still open the door to a 25-basis-point cut, while renewed energy price spikes might tilt sentiment toward a hike.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 3.9%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 2.1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$5,651,334 Vol.
$5,651,334 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
2%
変更なし
94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
変更なし 94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 3.9%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 2.1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$5,651,334 Vol.
$5,651,334 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$561,034 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$448,951 Vol.
2%
変更なし
$669,322 Vol.
94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$3,414,613 Vol.
4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$557,466 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient nonfarm payrolls, have anchored trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April decision and inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% goal, market-implied odds reflect the central bank’s data-dependent caution and limited scope for near-term policy shifts. A sharper labor market slowdown in upcoming May or June releases or cooler May CPI prints due June 10 could still open the door to a 25-basis-point cut, while renewed energy price spikes might tilt sentiment toward a hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$5,651,334終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient nonfarm payrolls, have anchored trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April decision and inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% goal, market-implied odds reflect the central bank’s data-dependent caution and limited scope for near-term policy shifts. A sharper labor market slowdown in upcoming May or June releases or cooler May CPI prints due June 10 could still open the door to a 25-basis-point cut, while renewed energy price spikes might tilt sentiment toward a hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$5,651,334終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient nonfarm payrolls, have anchored trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April decision and inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% goal, market-implied odds reflect the central bank’s data-dependent caution and limited scope for near-term policy shifts. A sharper labor market slowdown in upcoming May or June releases or cooler May CPI prints due June 10 could still open the door to a 25-basis-point cut, while renewed energy price spikes might tilt sentiment toward a hike.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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