The market-implied 90.5% probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, supported by a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and modest job gains alongside March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year. Persistent inflation risks from geopolitical oil price shocks and the Fed's hawkish dissents reinforce trader consensus that no acute crisis warrants unscheduled easing outside regular meetings. This aligns with broader market pricing via CME FedWatch futures, which embed near-zero odds of near-term cuts. Realistic challenges could emerge from a sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock, though current data and forward guidance limit those probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$105,161 Vol.
$105,161 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$105,161 Vol.
$105,161 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The market-implied 90.5% probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, supported by a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and modest job gains alongside March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year. Persistent inflation risks from geopolitical oil price shocks and the Fed's hawkish dissents reinforce trader consensus that no acute crisis warrants unscheduled easing outside regular meetings. This aligns with broader market pricing via CME FedWatch futures, which embed near-zero odds of near-term cuts. Realistic challenges could emerge from a sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock, though current data and forward guidance limit those probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
音量
$105,161終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The market-implied 90.5% probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, supported by a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and modest job gains alongside March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year. Persistent inflation risks from geopolitical oil price shocks and the Fed's hawkish dissents reinforce trader consensus that no acute crisis warrants unscheduled easing outside regular meetings. This aligns with broader market pricing via CME FedWatch futures, which embed near-zero odds of near-term cuts. Realistic challenges could emerge from a sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock, though current data and forward guidance limit those probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
音量
$105,161終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market-implied 90.5% probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, supported by a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and modest job gains alongside March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year. Persistent inflation risks from geopolitical oil price shocks and the Fed's hawkish dissents reinforce trader consensus that no acute crisis warrants unscheduled easing outside regular meetings. This aligns with broader market pricing via CME FedWatch futures, which embed near-zero odds of near-term cuts. Realistic challenges could emerge from a sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock, though current data and forward guidance limit those probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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