Forecast uncertainty from afternoon convective clouds and scattered showers in the Sichuan Basin's subtropical monsoon regime is the main driver keeping the highest probabilities clustered around 38°C (22%) and 39°C (19%), with 37°C close behind. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS currently indicates daytime maxima near 36–38°C for July 13, tempered by high humidity (70–80%) and typical monsoon moisture that caps extreme heating despite peak summer insolation. Recent early-July observations show frequent 34–36°C readings under similar conditions, while historical July climatology centers on 30–32°C averages with occasional 35°C+ spikes. Traders are weighting the narrow window for clear-sky intensification versus thunderstorm timing, with the next model runs and CMA updates likely to sharpen resolution ahead of the July 13 observation period.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月13日の成都の最高気温は？
7月13日の成都の最高気温は？
39°C 26%
38°C 25%
37°C 19%
36°C 15%
新規
新規
2026/07/13
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
2%
34°C
4%
35°C
9%
36°C
13%
37°C
18%
38°C
25%
39°C
21%
40°C or higher
10%
39°C 26%
38°C 25%
37°C 19%
36°C 15%
新規
新規
2026/07/13
30°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$90 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$6 Vol.
2%
34°C
$6 Vol.
4%
35°C
$0 Vol.
9%
36°C
$12 Vol.
13%
37°C
$5 Vol.
18%
38°C
$31 Vol.
25%
39°C
$29 Vol.
21%
40°C or higher
$50 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty from afternoon convective clouds and scattered showers in the Sichuan Basin's subtropical monsoon regime is the main driver keeping the highest probabilities clustered around 38°C (22%) and 39°C (19%), with 37°C close behind. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS currently indicates daytime maxima near 36–38°C for July 13, tempered by high humidity (70–80%) and typical monsoon moisture that caps extreme heating despite peak summer insolation. Recent early-July observations show frequent 34–36°C readings under similar conditions, while historical July climatology centers on 30–32°C averages with occasional 35°C+ spikes. Traders are weighting the narrow window for clear-sky intensification versus thunderstorm timing, with the next model runs and CMA updates likely to sharpen resolution ahead of the July 13 observation period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
音量
$232終了日
2026/07/13マーケット開始日
Jul 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty from afternoon convective clouds and scattered showers in the Sichuan Basin's subtropical monsoon regime is the main driver keeping the highest probabilities clustered around 38°C (22%) and 39°C (19%), with 37°C close behind. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS currently indicates daytime maxima near 36–38°C for July 13, tempered by high humidity (70–80%) and typical monsoon moisture that caps extreme heating despite peak summer insolation. Recent early-July observations show frequent 34–36°C readings under similar conditions, while historical July climatology centers on 30–32°C averages with occasional 35°C+ spikes. Traders are weighting the narrow window for clear-sky intensification versus thunderstorm timing, with the next model runs and CMA updates likely to sharpen resolution ahead of the July 13 observation period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$232終了日
2026/07/13マーケット開始日
Jul 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETForecast uncertainty from afternoon convective clouds and scattered showers in the Sichuan Basin's subtropical monsoon regime is the main driver keeping the highest probabilities clustered around 38°C (22%) and 39°C (19%), with 37°C close behind. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS currently indicates daytime maxima near 36–38°C for July 13, tempered by high humidity (70–80%) and typical monsoon moisture that caps extreme heating despite peak summer insolation. Recent early-July observations show frequent 34–36°C readings under similar conditions, while historical July climatology centers on 30–32°C averages with occasional 35°C+ spikes. Traders are weighting the narrow window for clear-sky intensification versus thunderstorm timing, with the next model runs and CMA updates likely to sharpen resolution ahead of the July 13 observation period.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問