Recent short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and international models indicate daytime highs near 31–32°C for August 19 amid typical subtropical summer conditions, with high humidity and scattered showers potentially moderating peak temperatures through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Weak steering flow and residual effects from recent tropical systems contribute to variable cloudiness that limits strong diurnal heating, while climatological baselines for mid-August support maxima around 31–32°C. Market-implied odds remain closely split because small differences in shower timing or intensity could push the daily peak across the 31–32°C threshold, and traders weigh model consensus against historical variability in urban heat island effects at official monitoring sites. Updated guidance ahead of the date will refine these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月19日の香港の最高気温は?
31°C 35%
32°C 33%
30°C 17%
33°C 13%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
4%
30°C
17%
31°C
35%
32°C
33%
33°C
13%
34°C
3%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
2%
31°C 35%
32°C 33%
30°C 17%
33°C 13%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
4%
30°C
17%
31°C
35%
32°C
33%
33°C
13%
34°C
3%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and international models indicate daytime highs near 31–32°C for August 19 amid typical subtropical summer conditions, with high humidity and scattered showers potentially moderating peak temperatures through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Weak steering flow and residual effects from recent tropical systems contribute to variable cloudiness that limits strong diurnal heating, while climatological baselines for mid-August support maxima around 31–32°C. Market-implied odds remain closely split because small differences in shower timing or intensity could push the daily peak across the 31–32°C threshold, and traders weigh model consensus against historical variability in urban heat island effects at official monitoring sites. Updated guidance ahead of the date will refine these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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