Official Hong Kong Observatory measurements recorded a daily maximum of 27°C on May 15, anchoring trader consensus at near-certainty for that outcome. This reading aligns with seasonal climatology for mid-May, when typical highs range from 28–31°C under prevailing subtropical conditions, though recent ENSO-neutral patterns and above-normal long-term warming trends have kept variability modest. No major weather systems or model divergences altered the trajectory in the final 48 hours before observation. The market-implied odds reflect the finality of verified station data, with resolution hinging on the Observatory’s official daily maximum rather than forecasts. Only an unprecedented post hoc data revision or measurement error could shift the outcome, scenarios that historical monitoring records render highly improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月15日の香港の最高気温は?
27°C 99.9%
26°C <1%
19℃以下 <1%
20℃ <1%
$292,518 Vol.
$292,518 Vol.
19℃以下
<1%
20℃
<1%
21℃
<1%
22℃
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25℃
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29℃以上
<1%
27°C 99.9%
26°C <1%
19℃以下 <1%
20℃ <1%
$292,518 Vol.
$292,518 Vol.
19℃以下
<1%
20℃
<1%
21℃
<1%
22℃
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25℃
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29℃以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Hong Kong Observatory measurements recorded a daily maximum of 27°C on May 15, anchoring trader consensus at near-certainty for that outcome. This reading aligns with seasonal climatology for mid-May, when typical highs range from 28–31°C under prevailing subtropical conditions, though recent ENSO-neutral patterns and above-normal long-term warming trends have kept variability modest. No major weather systems or model divergences altered the trajectory in the final 48 hours before observation. The market-implied odds reflect the finality of verified station data, with resolution hinging on the Observatory’s official daily maximum rather than forecasts. Only an unprecedented post hoc data revision or measurement error could shift the outcome, scenarios that historical monitoring records render highly improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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