Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensemble models point to a daytime maximum near 26 °C for Wuhan on May 18, aligning with the market’s leading 26 °C outcome at 45.5 % implied probability. Mid-May climatology supports peaks of 26–28 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds, while limited moisture and stable atmospheric conditions reduce the chance of significant cooling or intensification. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus guidance that places the high most likely between 25 °C and 27 °C, with the 25 °C and 24 °C outcomes holding secondary shares at 26.5 % and 19.4 %. Updated model runs expected overnight will refine steering patterns and any convective development that could shift the final observed maximum at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月18日の武漢の最高気温は?
26°C 50%
25°C 25%
24°C 11.1%
27°C 4%
$21,842 Vol.
$21,842 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
4%
24°C
16%
25°C
25%
26°C
50%
27°C
4%
28°C or higher
1%
26°C 50%
25°C 25%
24°C 11.1%
27°C 4%
$21,842 Vol.
$21,842 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
4%
24°C
16%
25°C
25%
26°C
50%
27°C
4%
28°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensemble models point to a daytime maximum near 26 °C for Wuhan on May 18, aligning with the market’s leading 26 °C outcome at 45.5 % implied probability. Mid-May climatology supports peaks of 26–28 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds, while limited moisture and stable atmospheric conditions reduce the chance of significant cooling or intensification. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus guidance that places the high most likely between 25 °C and 27 °C, with the 25 °C and 24 °C outcomes holding secondary shares at 26.5 % and 19.4 %. Updated model runs expected overnight will refine steering patterns and any convective development that could shift the final observed maximum at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問