Latest Japan Meteorological Agency model runs and ensemble guidance indicate a strengthening subtropical ridge favoring southerly flow and reduced cloud cover over the Kanto region, positioning the implied probability of a 28°C or higher maximum in Tokyo on May 18 near 54 percent. This setup supports enhanced daytime heating above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C at the Otemachi reference station, with afternoon temperatures potentially reaching the upper 20s under clear to partly cloudy skies. Minor model spread around boundary-layer moisture and timing of any sea-breeze intrusion keeps the 27°C outcome viable at 27.5 percent. Updated deterministic and ensemble forecasts expected from JMA within the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月18日の東京の最高気温は?
28°C or higher 54%
27°C 28%
26°C 18%
25°C 3.4%
$10,311 Vol.
$10,311 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
3%
26°C
18%
27°C
28%
28°C or higher
54%
28°C or higher 54%
27°C 28%
26°C 18%
25°C 3.4%
$10,311 Vol.
$10,311 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
3%
26°C
18%
27°C
28%
28°C or higher
54%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest Japan Meteorological Agency model runs and ensemble guidance indicate a strengthening subtropical ridge favoring southerly flow and reduced cloud cover over the Kanto region, positioning the implied probability of a 28°C or higher maximum in Tokyo on May 18 near 54 percent. This setup supports enhanced daytime heating above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C at the Otemachi reference station, with afternoon temperatures potentially reaching the upper 20s under clear to partly cloudy skies. Minor model spread around boundary-layer moisture and timing of any sea-breeze intrusion keeps the 27°C outcome viable at 27.5 percent. Updated deterministic and ensemble forecasts expected from JMA within the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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