Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project Tokyo’s May 17 maximum near 28–30 °C at the Otemachi reference station, driven by a building high-pressure ridge that favors strong daytime insolation and warm southerly advection. Ensemble guidance shows modest afternoon cloud development and a possible sea-breeze front that could shave 1–2 °C from peak readings, creating the observed tight clustering among the 28 °C, 29 °C, and 30 °C-or-higher outcomes. These values sit 4–7 °C above the mid-May climatological average, consistent with the current stable atmospheric pattern but still sensitive to small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or timing of peak heating. Updated JMA runs later today and early tomorrow will refine the final resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日の東京の最高気温は?
29°C 36%
30°C or higher 32%
28°C 27%
27°C 9%
$20,930 Vol.
$20,930 Vol.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
9%
28°C
27%
29°C
36%
30°C or higher
32%
29°C 36%
30°C or higher 32%
28°C 27%
27°C 9%
$20,930 Vol.
$20,930 Vol.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
9%
28°C
27%
29°C
36%
30°C or higher
32%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project Tokyo’s May 17 maximum near 28–30 °C at the Otemachi reference station, driven by a building high-pressure ridge that favors strong daytime insolation and warm southerly advection. Ensemble guidance shows modest afternoon cloud development and a possible sea-breeze front that could shave 1–2 °C from peak readings, creating the observed tight clustering among the 28 °C, 29 °C, and 30 °C-or-higher outcomes. These values sit 4–7 °C above the mid-May climatological average, consistent with the current stable atmospheric pattern but still sensitive to small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or timing of peak heating. Updated JMA runs later today and early tomorrow will refine the final resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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