El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026 and are forecast by NOAA, IRI, and multi-model ensembles to strengthen rapidly through summer and into a potentially very strong event by late 2026, providing the dominant near-term boost to global temperatures. This development follows La Niña-neutral conditions earlier in the year and is expected to add notable warmth during the Northern Hemisphere summer, pushing July 2026 anomalies higher relative to the 2025 baseline near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 average. Model consensus indicates widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures for June–August, though exact July values remain sensitive to the timing of El Niño intensification, internal variability, and any short-term cooling influences. The tightly clustered market-implied odds around 1.10–1.24 °C ranges reflect this transitional uncertainty ahead of the next ENSO update in July.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年7月温度上昇（º C ）
2026年7月温度上昇（º C ）
1.10〜1.14ºC 48%
1.20〜1.24ºC 44%
1.15〜1.19ºC 43%
>1.29ºC 42%
新規
新規
2026/08/01
1.10℃未満
41%
1.10〜1.14ºC
48%
1.15〜1.19ºC
43%
1.20〜1.24ºC
44%
1.25–1.29ºC
40%
>1.29ºC
42%
1.10〜1.14ºC 48%
1.20〜1.24ºC 44%
1.15〜1.19ºC 43%
>1.29ºC 42%
新規
新規
2026/08/01
1.10℃未満
$83 Vol.
41%
1.10〜1.14ºC
$63 Vol.
48%
1.15〜1.19ºC
$47 Vol.
43%
1.20〜1.24ºC
$45 Vol.
44%
1.25–1.29ºC
$84 Vol.
40%
>1.29ºC
$54 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026 and are forecast by NOAA, IRI, and multi-model ensembles to strengthen rapidly through summer and into a potentially very strong event by late 2026, providing the dominant near-term boost to global temperatures. This development follows La Niña-neutral conditions earlier in the year and is expected to add notable warmth during the Northern Hemisphere summer, pushing July 2026 anomalies higher relative to the 2025 baseline near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 average. Model consensus indicates widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures for June–August, though exact July values remain sensitive to the timing of El Niño intensification, internal variability, and any short-term cooling influences. The tightly clustered market-implied odds around 1.10–1.24 °C ranges reflect this transitional uncertainty ahead of the next ENSO update in July.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
音量
$377終了日
2026/08/01マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026 and are forecast by NOAA, IRI, and multi-model ensembles to strengthen rapidly through summer and into a potentially very strong event by late 2026, providing the dominant near-term boost to global temperatures. This development follows La Niña-neutral conditions earlier in the year and is expected to add notable warmth during the Northern Hemisphere summer, pushing July 2026 anomalies higher relative to the 2025 baseline near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 average. Model consensus indicates widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures for June–August, though exact July values remain sensitive to the timing of El Niño intensification, internal variability, and any short-term cooling influences. The tightly clustered market-implied odds around 1.10–1.24 °C ranges reflect this transitional uncertainty ahead of the next ENSO update in July.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$377終了日
2026/08/01マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026 and are forecast by NOAA, IRI, and multi-model ensembles to strengthen rapidly through summer and into a potentially very strong event by late 2026, providing the dominant near-term boost to global temperatures. This development follows La Niña-neutral conditions earlier in the year and is expected to add notable warmth during the Northern Hemisphere summer, pushing July 2026 anomalies higher relative to the 2025 baseline near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 average. Model consensus indicates widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures for June–August, though exact July values remain sensitive to the timing of El Niño intensification, internal variability, and any short-term cooling influences. The tightly clustered market-implied odds around 1.10–1.24 °C ranges reflect this transitional uncertainty ahead of the next ENSO update in July.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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